posted April 13, 2006 06:59 PM
I said this was the primary election in Calif., Jwhop. No one has won disgraced and indicted Cunningham's seat yet and won't until the Nov. election. In Calif. they have a weird voting system. In the primary election if one candidate does not get 50% of the votes they have a run-off election. Francine Busby is the only Democrat candidate running while the field is split for the Republicans. Here is an article on it. But in a Republican district, Busby, had a very good showing and a very encouraging margin of the voters.
WASHINGTON, April 12 — The race to succeed former Representative Randy Cunningham, a California Republican who pleaded guilty to corruption charges, took a complicated turn for both parties on Tuesday after a crowded primary in which a Democrat came in first, but did not win enough votes to escape a runoff.
Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press
Francine Busby, the Democratic candidate for the 50th Congressional District, reacts to early results Tuesday. She drew 44 percent of the vote.
The muddled outcome left Democrats and liberal activist groups cheered by the strong showing of the Democrat, Francine Busby, a school board member, but debating whether to pump significant resources into the June 6 primary. The district is strongly Republican — President Bush drew 55 percent of the vote there in 2004 — and Ms. Busby, in winning 44 percent of the vote, benefited from a splintered field that included 14 Republicans.
The race has been closely watched by both sides for a clue to the extent corruption investigations of Congressional Republicans could help Democrats in their drive to take back the House. Ms. Busby said Wednesday that she thought her strong showing suggested the power of the attack concerning the issue of ethics.
"This is a message that works," she said in a telephone news conference. "It is resonating with people across the country."
Steven P. Erie, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, said he was struck by how well Ms. Busby had done. She drew 36 percent of the vote when she ran against Mr. Cunningham in 2004.
"I think her chances are better than the conventional wisdom thinks," Mr. Erie said. "It's an uphill battle for Democrats given the registration figures, but it's not as steep as many people think. And I wouldn't have said that a while back."
According to preliminary returns posted by the California secretary of state's office, Ms. Busby's closest Republican competitor was Brian P. Bilbray, a former congressman, who drew 15 percent of the vote. He was followed by Eric Roach, a wealthy businessman, who drew 14 percent of the vote. Ms. Busby's Republican opponent in the special election will not be known until absentee ballots are counted.
Democratic officials said they remained wary of expending political capital or funds in a race that, on paper at least, appeared daunting. They have taken pains to keep some distance from it in an attempt to make it harder for Republicans to portray a Democratic loss there as a repudiation of corruption as a campaign issue.
Rahm Emanuel, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, declined to say how aggressively Democrats would help Ms. Busby, but did note that his Republican counterparts had spent heavily in advertisements against her.
"I never play my strategy out in the papers," Mr. Emanuel said. "You can say this: They spent $400,000 in a safe Republican district, to hold her to 44 percent."
Eli Pariser, the executive director of the liberal group MoveOn.org, which ran a get-out-the-vote operation to help Ms. Busby, said he was uncertain if his organization would duplicate the effort in the runoff.
"We are trying to figure out the results and assess what worked or not," Mr. Pariser said. "There were overly high expectations that she could beat 50 in a race with 14 people. It certainly keeps her in the game."
But pressure on Democrats to engage in the race is certain to be intense. Aides to Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee who campaigned for Ms. Busby and helped her raise money, said he would continue to work to help her in the months ahead. And liberal blogs like the Daily Kos, which have played an active role in House races this year, seized on the outcome as evidence that Democrats could take this seat.
"The race will remain a top focus" on the Daily Kos, Markos Moulitas, its founder, wrote in an e-mail message after posting a blog entry arguing that an aggressive Democratic turnout effort could win the race.
Washington Republicans said they were confident of holding on to the seat, saying the losing Republicans and their supporters would coalesce around the Republican winner.
"She underperformed John Kerry," said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, referring to the percentage of the vote Mr. Kerry drew in the district in the 2004 presidential race. "She's pretty much at her high-water mark."
Amy Walter, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said: "It's still a Republican district. There is nothing I saw from the results that suggest there is some sort of wave building behind Busby."
But other analysts said the road ahead for Republicans was hardly easy. There is a Democratic primary for governor on June 6, which is likely to draw Democrats to the polls, a benefit for Ms. Busby.
In addition, they said, after this highly contested primary, it is not certain that Republicans will rally around one candidate.