posted August 11, 2006 04:57 PM              

Could it be that 'Axis of Evil' Iran holds the electoral fortunes of the U.S. Republican Party and the fate of Iraq in the palm of its hands? According to this analysis from Lebanon's leading Arab-Language newspaper Annahar, Iran may be willing to help pull the White House's coals out of the Iraqi fire … for a price.

By Samih Saab

Translated By Nicolas Dagher

March 18, 2006

Lebanon - An-Nahar - Original Article (Arabic)

U.S. strategic planning for the Middle East comes out of the White House, which considers Iran to be America's biggest Middle East challenge.

Why Iran? Because there are two issues that worry America most: the Iranian nuclear program and Iran's influence in the region.

The Iranian nuclear program worries Washington because of Israeli fears. Israel is alarmed that Iran is nearing the bomb-making stage, an eventuality that would constitute a new balance of power in the region. It would also constitute a new deterrent against the Israeli bomb.

Iran's influence is a concern because of America's entanglement in Iraq. At one point, Iran and America had a common enemy called Saddam Hussein. But after getting rid of him, their opposing interests materialized in Iraq. The U.S. is unable to bring stability and launch the political process without the help of neighboring countries (it first tried a strategy of frightening neighboring countries, to prevent them from meddling in Iraqi affairs). But facts on the ground have been pointing to a major conflict between the U.S. and surrounding countries, each of which looks at what America is trying to establish in Iraq as harmful to its interests. This applies to all of Iraq's neighbors: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Turkey and Jordan.

Every one of these countries has their eyes set on Iraq. Some of them fear the "Democratic Prototype" that America is trying to erect, and others fear being hit by the chaos and sectarian violence that the Americans insist has not yet reached the level of a civil war.

What's more, the popularity of this war is at its lowest level since the invasion, due to its high cost in both lives and soldiers. Moreover, the reasons for which the Americans went to war turned out to be merely "inventions," used by the administration to justify and "market" the war to Congress and the public. Perhaps if Americans had known that there were no WMDs, the American public and Congress wouldn't have supported Bush or allowed him to use force. Bush has at great length tried to explain to U.S. citizens that bringing democracy in the Middle East is linked to homeland security. But Americans haven't been convinced, and the proof is the plummeting support for the president and the war.

Facing deadlock in Iraq, Bush is again seeking the help of regional powers, which could help him stabilize and prevent Iraq from slipping into a civil war that would have devastating effects on neighboring countries. This explains Washington's reaching out to Iran for talks concerning Iraq. No matter what justifications Washington has given for contacting Iran, such contacts could have a positive impact on other issues, such as the nuclear file; because Iran is not going to give anything away in Iraq. Iran will compromise with the U.S. if, and only if, it is beneficial to Iran.

But Iraq is just one of the thorny issues between Iran and the United States. In addition to the issue of her nuclear file, Iran is a regional power with a sphere of influence that covers Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Lebanon.

Is the United States aware that there will be more challenges in the region because it is "falling down" in Iraq?

There are doubtless many pressures descending on Bush to create some measure of Iraqi stability before the midterm elections in November. If the situation in Iraq remains the same or deteriorates deeper into violence and chaos, it could end the Republican majority.