posted September 01, 2006 11:16 PM              

Friday September 1, 2006 5:31 PM

AP Photo BAG116

By ROBERT BURNS

AP Military Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Sectarian violence is spreading in Iraq and the security problems have become more complex than at any time since the U.S. invasion in 2003, the Pentagon said Friday.

In a notably gloomy report to Congress, the Pentagon said illegal militias have become more entrenched, especially in Baghdad neighborhoods where they are seen as providers of security as well as basic social services.

The report described a rising tide of sectarian violence, fed in part by interference from neighboring Iran and Syria and driven by a ``vocal minority'' of religious extremists who oppose the idea of a democratic Iraq.

Death squads targeting mainly Iraqi civilians are a growing problem, heightening the risk of civil war, it said.

``Death squads and terrorists are locked in mutually reinforcing cycles of sectarian strife,'' the report said, adding that the Sunni-led insurgency ``remains potent and viable'' even as it is overshadowed by the sect-on-sect killing.

``Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq, specifically in and around Baghdad, and concern about civil war within the Iraqi civilian population has increased in recent months,'' the report said. It is the latest in a series of quarterly reports required by Congress to assess economic, political and security progress.

Peter Rodman, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told reporters that although there has been progress this summer in reviving the Iraqi economy and raising electricity production, the security conditions have deteriorated even as the number of trained Iraqi troops has increased.

The report covered the period since the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki was seated May 20.

``The last quarter, as you know has been rough,'' Rodman said. ``The levels of violence are up and the sectarian quality of the violence is particularly acute and disturbing.''

That assessment, which has been expressed publicly by U.S. military commanders and others in recent weeks, was tempered by a degree of optimism that the Iraqi government - with support from U.S. troops - will succeed in quelling the sectarian strife.

Optimism among ordinary Iraqis, however, has declined, the 63-page report said.

When asked whether they believe ``things will be better'' in the future, the percentage of Iraqis responding positively has dropped fairly consistently over the past year - whether they were asked to look ahead six months, one year or five years - according to polling data cited in the report.

The report is the first to Congress since the Iraqi government assembled its full slate of ministers in early June. Since then, sectarian tensions have increased, ``manifested in an increasing number of execution-style killings, kidnappings and attacks on civilians'' and growing numbers of people forced from their homes, it said.

It said sectarian violence has spread from Baghdad into Diyala and Kirkuk provinces north of the capital. It also cited a rising problem with violence in the predominantly Shiite southern region, especially in the city of Basra.

``The security situation is currently at its most complex state since the initiation of Operation Iraq Freedom,'' the report said, using the U.S. military's name for the war that was launched in March 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein.

Although it acknowledged the risk of civil war, the report said the current violence does not amount to civil war and asserted momentum toward a civil war can be stopped.

``Breaking the cycle of violence is the most pressing goal of coalition and Iraqi operations,'' it said.

posted September 01, 2006 11:24 PM              

Democratic senator says bleak warning shows that administration is 'increasingly disconnected from the facts on the ground'
Sep. 1, 2006. 06:11 PM
REUTERS

WASHINGTON — The core conflict in Iraq has changed from a battle against insurgents to an increasingly bloody fight between Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims, creating conditions that could lead to civil war, the Pentagon said in a report today.
The congressionally mandated report provided a sober assessment of Iraq over the past three months, saying overall attacks rose 24 percent to 792 per week — highest of the war — and daily Iraqi casualties soared 51 percent to nearly 120.

Violence between minority Sunnis, who controlled Iraq under former President Saddam Hussein, and the majority Shi’ites, who are asserting themselves after decades of oppression, now defines the conflict, it stated.

Sectarian violence is spreading north, outside of Baghdad into Diyala province and oil-rich Kirkuk, it said. Death squads, sometimes with “rogue elements” of U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces, are heavily responsible for the sectarian violence, including execution-style killings, it said.

And some ordinary Iraqis now look to illegal militias to provide for their safety and sometimes for social needs and welfare, undermining Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s government, it said.

The 63-page report said the Sunni Arab insurgency remained ”potent and viable,” although its visibility has been overshadowed by the increasing sectarian violence.

The release of this fifth in a series of quarterly Pentagon assessments comes as President Bush strives to bolster sagging U.S. public support two months before U.S. congressional elections while Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney assail war critics.

“Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq,” the report stated.

“Nevertheless, the current violence is not a civil war, and movement toward a civil war can be prevented,” it added. It called the security environment the most complex since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said the report showed speeches by Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld “are increasingly disconnected from the facts on the ground in Iraq. Even the Pentagon acknowledges Iraq is tipping into civil war.”

Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy said the report “reaffirms what the American people already understand: the conditions of civil war exist, violence in Iraq is spiraling out of control and staying the course is not a viable option.”

Since the last report in May, the core conflict in Iraq has changed into a struggle between Sunni and Shi’ite extremists vying to control key areas in Baghdad, protect sectarian enclaves, divert economic resources and impose their own political and religious agendas, the report stated.

Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said, “The last quarter, as you know, has been rough, and the levels of violence are up. And the sectarian quality of the violence is particularly acute and disturbing.”

The United States has boosted its Iraq force to 140,000, the most since January, with the 15,000 troops in Baghdad trying to halt the slide into all-out civil war.

Asked if Iraq already was in a low-grade civil war, Rear Adm. William Sullivan, a senior strategic planner for the military’s Joint Staff, said, “It’s hard to say,” adding there is no “universally accepted definition” for civil war.

posted September 01, 2006 11:26 PM              

August 2006
Report to Congress
In accordance with the
Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2006
(Section 9010)