posted December 13, 2006 11:22 AM              

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The recent change in Islamabad's language of diplomacy with the West and with New Delhi is superficial and just a matter of gaining time until a new situation emerges in the region. Pakistan had no option after 9/11 except biding time until it is suitable to go back again to its national aspirations in regional matters like Kashmir and Afghanistan.

In the post-9/11 scenario, Pakistan transcended its old policies on Afghanistan and Kashmir and seemed to compromise on some issues. Islama-bad also silently revamped a long-term strategic plan based on a new vision for Sino-Pakistan relations to create a balance against American presence in the region. An anticipation of a drastic change in Afghanistan was an added factor, which envisioned a weakened US position in the region and subsequently less American influence on Pakistan.

At present there are two developments emerging in the region on which Pakistan's external policies are dependent. The major one is Afghanistan where Taliban has wrested control of a major portion of south-western Afghanistan. During a recent visit to south-western Afghanistan, it was clear that most of the districts in Urzgan, Helmand, Zabul and Kandahar provinces are under Taliban control. It is apparent that Taliban is planning an assault on Kandahar next spring and then mobili-sing forces towards Kabul by summer.

Policy-makers in Islamabad anticipate a popular national Afghan uprising against the Karzai administration by mid-2007. Washington, too, might be looking towards rapprochement with Taliban and Gulbadin Hekmatyar. Whatever the final outcome, Pakistan would be a gainer in both cases with American influence waning in the region and its natural allies, the Islamists, prevailing in Afghanistan.

The second development is Pervez Musharraf's recent proposal for India and Pakistan to jointly supervise an autonomous, demilitarised Kashmir. This must be seen in light of Islamabad's overall strategy — its purpose is only to keep a lull until the situation changes in Pakistan's favour.

The recent changes in the school curriculum of Pakistan are considered a good omen for Indo-Pak relations. But that is also part of a package enforced to please Washington, which has suggested that education in Pakistan should not be based on religion. But it would be wrong to assume that there is a change in the thinking of the Pakistani military establishment. An analysis of all these changes shows that it is just a ‘one step forward, one step back' policy.

At the same time, Pakistan is working with a substitute strategic ally to neutralise US pressure. Pakistan's new strategic relations with China are very much linked with its plans in Afghanistan. Pakistan has created an environment that would automatically give China a dominant role in Central Asia.

China and Pakistan have signed a free trade agreement (FTA), which is projected to triple their current bilateral trade to $15 billion within five years. The agreement also covers investments, including investment promotion and protection, expropriation, compensation for damages and losses and dispute settlement. The pact gives China access through Gwadar port in south-western Pakistan to Central Asia.

While these developments are rapidly unfolding, Pakistan is going back to its pre-9/11 situation step by step. An agreement has already taken place between the Taliban and Islamabad in federally administered tribal areas of North Waziristan and South Waziristan.

The Bajaur attack is already in popular opinion linked with US planes which destroyed a madrassa. Despite an attack on Dargai's military centre in North West Frontier Province in November, in which many Pakistani soldiers were killed, Pakistan refrained from carrying out any retaliation against terrorists. Instead it has followed a policy of rapprochement with militants.

The first half of 2007 is going to be extremely important. There will certainly be a fierce Taliban-led uprising against foreign forces in Afghanistan.