posted February 28, 2008 01:20 AM
Obama may not need to bomb Pakistan after all 
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The cynics are wrong
Praful Bidwai
By voting as they did in an election shaped as much by civil society mobilisation as by a military dictator's compulsions, the Pakistani people have upturned many shibboleths and cliches. Among these are the 'three As' — Allah, Army and America — supposedly the greatest determinants of social and political processes, whose stranglehold can never be loosened.
The election campaign, and numerous opinion polls, confirmed that the United States' overbearing presence is greatly resented by the majority. Despite heavy-handed efforts to micromanage the election outcome, the US couldn't influence events beyond a point.
The army is now hated, reviled and despised — as intensely as after its ignominious defeat in Bangladesh. Popular slogans in the elections, and ring-tone chants like 'Go, Musharraf, Go!', all berate the army for its misrule, corruption, greed and for fighting a battle driven by external agendas.
Army chief Ashfaq Kiyani saw the writing on the wall and decided to sever the army's overt political links, withdraw its personnel from civilian positions, and declare that the army would play no role in the elections (i.e. help Pervez Musharraf rig the polls).
As for the mullahs who claim to speak in Allah's name, the people are sick of them and have sent the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal hurtling from 56 seats in the National Assembly to just five seats, and inflicted a stunning defeat on it in the Frontier province, where it ruled.
This reverses an exceptional recent trend under which the fundamentalists breached the traditional 3 per cent vote barrier.
Equally important, the Pakistani voter forcefully rejected PML-Q stalwarts, who belong to well-entrenched feudal 'political families' with strong clan connections, who for decades have won all elections. This conveys an egalitarian, inclusive and radical-democratic message and gives the vote an anti-elite character.
Add to this the lawyers' impressive and sustained movement for constitutionalism and the rule of law. This further enhances the pro-democracy momentum. Clearly, civil society has emerged as an important actor in Pakistan for the first time.
Pakistanis voted rationally, discriminatingly and unsentimentally, and weren't excessively swayed by sympathy for Benazir Bhutto. Unlike in the past, they refused to give an overwhelming mandate to the PPP or PML-N. The PPP swept its traditional stronghold, Sind, but also did well in the Frontier province and southern Punjab. The PML-N retained its base in Punjab because of its strong anti-Musharraf stand.
This outcome reaffirms regional diversity. Cooperation between the PPP, PML-N and Afsandyar Wali Khan's Awami National Party offers Pakistan the best chance to address two urgent tasks: making a decisive break with military rule and moving towards autonomy for the provinces which seethe with discontent.
This could pave the way for a democratic breakthrough amidst largely favourable internal and external conditions.
Of course, a lot can go wrong. Pakistani society has taken a lot of battering and its political structures have been ravaged. It can't draw upon reliable institutions to support democratisation. It won't be easy for Asif Ali Zardari to resist pressure, backed by serious threats to reopen corruption cases, not to reach an understanding with Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif in turn is already baulking at joining a PPP-led government sworn in by Musharraf, although he says he'll support it even against destabilisation by others. Zardari and Sharif disagree over including the mohajir-dominated MQM in the larger political arrangement.
The Americans, obsessed with counter-terrorism and Musharraf, might contribute to upsetting the apple cart.
But just imagine that many things do go right, even if messily, and the hold of the army and Islamists is significantly weakened. The importance of Islamic Pakistan's successful transition to a moderate modern democracy cannot be exaggerated.
This could transform South Asia, change the West's view of Islam, and alter the political canvas of the entire world.
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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articlelist/-2128669051.cms
for more on the changing power equations from Er... non Liberal Asian sources 
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/search.cms
Lindaland
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posted February 28, 2008 01:20 AM
posted February 28, 2008 08:46 AM
. Thus Obama should have known this. Heck, I being the small time Manager/University student saw it comming Lol! I usually fail to see how big time politicians miss out on such things.