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Author Topic:   Dems May Vote McCain....Independents Too.
jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 12:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Well, demoscats had a hand in choosing McCain as the Republican candidate. The NY Times endorsed McCain. demoscats attacked every other Republican candidate but left McCain alone..relatively speaking.

Now they may be suffering from the old adage "be careful what you wish for, you may get it".

Seems McCain draws support from democrats. McCain also draws even more support from democrats whose nominee is rejected as the party choice...about 20% say if their candidate isn't nominated, they'll vote for McCain.

The big shocker for democrats is that independents choose McCain over either O'Bomber or Hillary.

All this is hysterical because the conservative base of the Republican Party are not in love with McCain.

GOP looks to 'McCain Democrats'
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 3/27/08 4:41 AM EST

McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats could upend the political calculus for the November general election.

A new analysis of March polling data suggests that John McCain's cross-party support surpasses that of either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton.

According to data provided by the Gallup Organization at Politico’s request, in a hypothetical contest between McCain and Obama, McCain wins 17 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, while Obama wins 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

In a potential contest with Clinton, McCain wins 14 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners while Clinton wins 8 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

By way of comparison, exit polls in 2004 reported that George W. Bush won 11 percent of Democrats and John F. Kerry won 6 percent of Republicans.

The new analysis, calculated from a compilation of Gallup’s daily polls between March 7 and 22, seems to indicate that there are more “McCain Democrats” than the much-ballyhooed “Obama Republicans” — or “Obamacans,” as they are sometimes referred to.

McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats, a finding that also surfaces in surveys conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and in private GOP polls, could upend the political calculus for the November general election.

Equally important, Gallup finds that McCain wins independents against either Democrat — 48 to 23 percent against Clinton, and 40 to 31 percent against Obama.

In 2004, exit polls showed independents cast 26 percent of the vote, splitting their support evenly between Bush and Kerry.

Both the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign are depending upon McCain’s potential appeal to Democrats and independents to compensate for the depleted Republican ranks.

“Democrats currently have a lead in voter identification; it’s axiomatic that you have to look beyond your party’s base to get to 50 percent,” said Frank Donatelli, the deputy chairman of the RNC.

Late February polling by the RNC, passed along to top officials in the McCain campaign, also found that more Democrats said they would vote for McCain than Republicans said they would vote for Obama, according to an RNC operative and a senior adviser to the McCain campaign.

“There will be something in the range of a quarter of Democrats available or accessible to him when the this Democratic contest is over but that doesn’t mean we won’t have to work for them,” said a senior McCain adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

That estimate may prove optimistic, though not wildly.

A Fox News poll released last week also found that McCain wins 18 percent of Democrats while Obama wins 11 percent of Republicans. McCain maintains his advantage among independents in the Fox poll, as well.

Clinton, according to the Gallup findings, hemorrhages slightly fewer Democrats than Obama. But Obama more than compensates for Clinton’s strength among Democrats with his greater capacity to narrow McCain’s advantage among independents. Private polling conducted by Republican strategist Tony Fabrizio reflects the same trend.

“There’s going to be McCain Democrats,” Fabrizio said, adding that it was only a question of whether they will be a small sliver of the political left or a movement toward McCain.

If Obama is the Democratic nominee, the McCain adviser said the campaign will target male and female blue-collar white Democrats, a group viewed by Republicans as Obama’s soft spot.

“They already sense that [Obama] may be too liberal,” the adviser added. “They tend to also agree with McCain on the war and on social issues and we’ll have to satisfy them that McCain agrees with them on the economy.”

McCain’s appeal to Democrats has some Republican strategists envisioning a Ronald Reagan-like road map for the 2008 race. Today, most of the so-called Reagan Democrats have become independents.

“One similarity between 1980 and 2008 is you have a very tough Democratic primary,” said the RNC’s Donatelli, who served as the political director in the Reagan White House. “After that ended, there were a lot of bruised feelings and Democrats who would not vote for the winner.”

Gallup published results Wednesday that showed evidence supporting a similar scenario for 2008. Twenty-eight percent of Clinton’s supporters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. The data, aggregating the same period of March polling, also showed 19 percent of Obama’s supporters pledging to back McCain if Clinton wins the nomination.

“The bulk of the Democrats you would try to appeal to are not Harvard-educated lawyers who are feminists. They’re working-class Democrats that you have more of a shot at getting. And the core of that appeal is social conservatism, right to life, Second Amendment and obviously national security,” Donatelli said.

Comparing Reagan to McCain, Donatelli said “both of them were and are viewed as mavericks, and a lot of that is character, and a lot of that is the persona of the individual. And it’s issue-based too, because you’ve challenged the orthodoxy on occasion.”

Democrats say they must undercut McCain’s maverick image in order to shore up their flank.

“People tend to confuse maverick with moderate,” said Steve Rosenthal, a Democratic leader in mobilizing voters. Rosenthal said Democrats must position McCain as a conservative and introduce them to the “real John McCain” on issues ranging from abortion to the war in Iraq to the environment.

“If Republicans are successful in defining John McCain as a moderate who can work across party lines and is a straight talker, then we will be in a real battle to win Democrats in some of these swing states,” he continued.

“Against McCain,” Rosenthal said, “it’s clear this is going to be an extremely close race. Anybody who thought that Democrats were going to waltz to the White House in 2008 is crazy.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9229_Page2.html

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juniperb
Moderator

Posts: 856
From: Blue Star Kachina
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 12:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Interesting jwhop!

As an Independent voter, I`m looking at McCain.... Looking hard .

I liked Huckabee much better but the people have spoken.

Ok,Dems Pubbys and Libs, take your best shot at me

------------------
~
What we do for ourselves dies with us. What we do for others and the world is immortal"~

- George Eliot

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Mannu
Knowflake

Posts: 45
From: always here and no where
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 12:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mannu     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thats why I love NY times over cup of tea.

They had to select one from each party :

I think this is what they did:

Huckabee does not believe in evolution and believes the earth was created in 6 days.

Mitt Romney sounds more like a dishwasher salesman.

Mc Cain is a warrior. Therefore Mc Cain from the republicans.

And Obama is virtually unknown

Hillary is loved in NY

So push Hillary


No rocket science involved there

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 12:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Well Juni, McCain may well be your choice as a "moderate". The dems will attempt to paint McCain as an arch conservative but McCain gives lots of conservatives, arch and otherwise, heartburn.

Mannu, don't kid yourself. The NY Times picked McCain to endorse because they thought McCain would be the easiest to defeat in the general election...of the major Republican candidates in the primary race. They thought that because McCain raises the hackles of the conservative base of the Republicn Party. But....if dems ran an ax murderer in the general election, the NY Times would endorse the democrat. Wake up and smell the tea.

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juniperb
Moderator

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From: Blue Star Kachina
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posted March 28, 2008 01:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Now jwhop, heartburn is the name of the game in this election year.

Take 2 tums and bite the bullet because the US of A is in for a ride.

The "advisors" are, who I suspect, we should be looking at rather than the canidates.... none of the 3 would be actually running the country. Just when I thought my homework was completed .

------------------
~
What we do for ourselves dies with us. What we do for others and the world is immortal"~

- George Eliot

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Mannu
Knowflake

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From: always here and no where
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posted March 28, 2008 01:12 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mannu     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Jwhop - I am in agreement there

Mc Cain has goofed on his foreign policy in the past. And not sure why he has to suck up to Bush. And did you hear a rumor going on. Media is trying to out some major news but every one is quite for fear of being fired. I wonder if they are saving it for the last.

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 01:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
You may be right Juni. Perhaps we should insist Presidential candidates supply a list of Presidential "advisors" before the election.

Can you imagine the charges and counter charges which would be made against...not the candidates but the Presidential advisors?

"Obama's foreign policy advisor once said we should close all US military bases and bring all the troops home."

"Oh yeah, well McCain's advisor on the enviornment said there's too much regulation on corporations."

"Oh yeah, well Obama's advisor on trade said the US is too aggressive on trade policy and we should back off."

"Oh yeah, well McCain's ecomonic advisor once wrote a white paper suggesting that if everyone bought just one shoe the economy would be stimulated."

Now that would be endlessly entertaining.

Mannu, the so called media already tried that and got solidly slapped for their trouble...by the McCain campaign..when the charge...whatever it was proved to be false.

Now, how has McCain "goofed" on "his" foreign policy?

Could be the press is saving their ammunition for the general election. Chances are McCain is going to be painted as too conservative, too old and too sick to be President. Oh, did you know McCain once visited Bob Jones University? Add to the list...McCain is a closet "right wing reactionary fundamentialist Christian".

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 01:50 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This is probably the first tv ad from the McCain campaign for the general election. McCain is starting to "define himself" before the dems and the press get into the act.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0308/McCain_launches_ad_to_go_with_tour_sets_up_narrative.html

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AcousticGod
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Posts: 4415
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 01:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I actually corresponded with this journalist yesterday. I referred him to Pew's recent study that indicates that more people identify themselves as Democrats. He agreed that that was a good point.

I ran some numbers to see the actual impact of these defections. I didn't use Hillary's numbers as I don't tend to think that she's the stronger of the two Democratic candidates.

Democrats and Independents who lean towards Democrats made up 51% of Pews sample of 5,566 people. Likewise Republicans and Independents who lean Republican made up 37% of Pew's sample. 12% lean neither way in particular.

I needed to have a mass of people to calculate the numbers from, so I used Pew's sample size: 5,566.

51% of 5,566 = 2839
37% of 5,566 = 2059

McCain wins 17% of [Democrats]2839 = 483
Obama wins 10% of [Republicans]2059 = 206

2839[Democrats] – 483[McCain's pull] = 2356
2059[Republicans] – 206[Obama's pull] = 1853

2356 = 42% of 5,566
1853 = 33% of 5,566

Democrats still have a numbers lead by 9%.

Let's throw in the people who lean neither way:

12% = 668 (of 5,566)
40% of 668 go to McCain
31% of 668 go to Obama
40% of 668 = 267 [McCain's pull]
31% of 668 = 207 [Obama's pull]

2356[Obama] + 207[Obama's pull of Independents] = 2563
1853[McCain] + 267[McCain's pull of Independents] = 2120

2563 = 46% of 5,566 [Democrats]
2120 = 38% of 5,566 [Republicans]

Considering our starting figures, 51% Democratic versus 37% Republican, Republicans only gained a single percent overall, while Democrats lose just 5% (and stay in the numbers lead). As such 17% isn't quite the number it's made out to be in that article.

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Mannu
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posted March 28, 2008 02:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mannu     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Hillary is still not out of the race.

One thing I did notice is that more people are exercising their rights to vote because they were attracted to this pied piper called Obama.

Number or popular vote wise democrats got more votes than republicans in the primaries.

Recently I have seen a change of heart amongst youngsters in Pennsylvania going to Billary from Obama and some are already talking about "Action not words" phrase a lot. Hillary actually got many applause in a reputed university in PA.


I wonder what happens in June when independents come in to play.

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Mannu
Knowflake

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From: always here and no where
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posted March 28, 2008 02:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mannu     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Oh by the way in the general election the person with popularity votes win or person with Majority states/unions wins?

I was so ignorant as I didn't had to vote in the past LOL

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jwhop
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Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 02:29 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There are polls and then there are polls. Each poll asks different questions or frames their questions differently.

Some polls are run to produce a specific result...the one wanted by the poller or whomever is paying.

McCain's lead over both O'Bomber and Hillary has been holding up day after day for some time...Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen poll which predicted Kerry would win in 2004.

The poll you cite seems to be a "weighted" poll. Tricky because the weighting factor may be off...and democrats and republicans don't always vote for the party candidate.

In the Rasmussen Poll, only one question or perhaps 2 are asked respondents.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/poli tics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

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AcousticGod
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From: Pleasanton, CA
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posted March 28, 2008 02:36 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Personally, while I think the projections are interesting, I also think that there's tons of time left. The candidates still have a lot of time to make connections with people.

My prediction is that this election will be as close as the last two.

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jwhop
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From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
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posted March 28, 2008 02:38 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Could be, though the 2000 election was razor close.

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AcousticGod
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From: Pleasanton, CA
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posted March 28, 2008 02:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
The poll you cite seems to be a "weighted" poll.

The poll I cited? Is that what you're referring to?

quote:
McCain's lead over both O'Bomber and Hillary has been holding up day after day for some time...Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen poll which predicted Kerry would win in 2004.

Are you saying the Rasmussen poll is good or bad? It seems like you're saying it's good, and you provide a link even, but then you said Rasmussen was not accurate in the last election.

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
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posted March 28, 2008 03:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Weighted, 51% to 37% in favor of democrats which may or may not still be true and it may even be immaterial. People don't always vote with their party candidate. People even change their registrations between elections.

How do you get a higher vote total for Obama among Independents than for McCain...when McCain polls higher percentage numbers of Independents than Obama...and the 51%-37% weighting factor is totally irrelevant because it's for democrat/republican registrations...which DO NOT include Independents.

Best method is just to ask "between McCain and Hillary who would you vote for?"

Between McCain and Obama, who would you vote for?

I threw in the bit about Rasmussen being wrong in 2004 because after all, these are just polls. People don't always answer truthfully and some take delight in screwing up the process...just like they sometimes do in exit polling.

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AcousticGod
Knowflake

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From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 03:57 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Weighted, 51% to 37% in favor of democrats which may or may not still be true

This particular poll was just published this month.

quote:
How do you get a higher vote total for Obama among Independents than for McCain...when McCain polls higher percentage numbers of Independents than Obama

I didn't.
40% of 668 = 267 [McCain's pull]
31% of 668 = 207 [Obama's pull]

There is a likely error, though, and that's the fact that my starting numbers included Indpendents who lean Democratic, as well as Independents that lean Republican. It might be interesting to separate all the Independents from those who definitely identify with a party. Republicans would still be starting from the lower numbered position, though (36% Democrats to 27% Republican).

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 04:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
You didn't give Obama a higher vote total among Independents acoustic?

Seems to me you did because it appears you used the 51%-37% weighting factor assigned to democrats and republicans...when you were talking about Independents who are neither.

2356[Obama] + 207[Obama's pull of Independents] = 2563
1853[McCain] + 267[McCain's pull of Independents] = 2120"

No one knows what's going to happen in November and that's a fact.

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AcousticGod
Knowflake

Posts: 4415
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 04:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Independents who are neither are the numbers you didn't bold.

Obama gets 31% of them, which equals 207.
McCain gets 40% of them, which equals 267.

McCain's total IS higher for those Independents that didn't express a preference one way or the other.

(What you quoted was my adding the above totals to Obama and McCain's numbers of those who have specified a preference for a party.)

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 2787
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted March 28, 2008 05:28 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
OK, we'll see how it plays out in November...after each candidate has exploded or imploded a few times or both.

Until then, it's all guess work...and lots of money for dueling pollsters.

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