posted November 20, 2009 09:46 PM         

The pandemic of swine flu may be hitting a peak in the Northern Hemisphere, global health officials said on Friday, but they cautioned it was far from over.

Officials also said they were investigating several troubling outbreaks of drug-resistant H1N1 but noted they were limited so far and that there were no indications yet the virus was mutating in a sustained way.

The World Health Organization said H1N1 flu was moving eastward across Europe and Asia after appearing to peak in parts of Western Europe and the United States.

At least 6,770 deaths have been recorded worldwide since the swine flu virus emerged in April — but officials always stress the confirmed count represents only a fraction of the actual cases, as most patients never get tested.

There are "early signs of a peak in disease activity in some areas of the northern hemisphere," the WHO said in a statement.

Transmission keeps intensifying in Canada, with the highest number of doctor visits by children. But U.S. officials saw signs of a slowdown.

"We are beginning to see some declines in flu activity around the country but there is still a lot of influenza," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Dr. Anne Schuchat told a news conference.

"It is still much greater than we would normally see this time of year."

Recent decline in cases
A team at flu test maker Quest Diagnostics analyzed 142,000 U.S. flu tests and found a similar pattern, with tests showing a decline in flu-like illness since October 27.

Swine flu: Is the worst behind us?
Nov. 20: New numbers on reported swine flu cases show the epidemic may have reached its peak in the U.S. NBC's Robert Bazell reports.

WHO said Norway and countries farther east including Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova and Serbia were reporting sharp increases in influenza-like illness or acute respiratory infection.

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and parts of Afghanistan — particularly the capital, Kabul — are reporting higher numbers of flu cases. Israel is also reporting sharp increases.

"Essentially what is happening is that it is spreading eastward," Anthony Mounts of WHO's influenza team told Reuters. "Typically, seasonal influenza always starts west and moves eastward. It seems to be following that pattern except it is coming very early this year."

Influenza can hit several peaks in a single season. Experts said weeks or months more of disease could be expected and noted that during the 1957 pandemic, a busy autumn was followed by a lull and then infections surged again starting in January.

Vaccination campaigns are beginning in many countries but companies reported some trouble making vaccine from the H1N1 virus. The United States was still struggling to distribute vaccines but Canadian Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said enough vaccine for almost half of Canada's population would have been shipped out by the end of the next week.

Mutant viruses
British health officials said they were investigating the likely person-to-person spread of a drug-resistant strain of swine flu.

The Health Protection Agency reported five confirmed cases in Wales of patients infected with H1N1 resistant Roche AG and Gilead Sciences Inc's antiviral drug Tamiflu.

Another antiviral, GlaxoSmithKline and Biota Inc's Relenza, were effective in the patients, the HPA said.

The patients had serious conditions that suppressed their immune systems, which can give the virus a better than usual opportunity to develop resistance, the HPA added.

U.S. CDC officials also said they were investigating four cases of H1N1 resistant to Tamiflu at Duke University hospital in North Carolina. "All four patients were very ill with underlying severely compromised immune systems and multiple other complex medical conditions," Duke said in a statement.

Health experts are looking for any sign that H1N1 is mutating into a drug-resistant form. Last year, the seasonal version of H1N1, a distant cousin of the pandemic strain, developed resistance to Tamiflu.

In Norway, officials were investigating a mutated strain in some patients that they said could be responsible for causing severe symptoms."

posted November 21, 2009 09:50 AM         

I have seen this trend at my hospital.

We had several cases in September and early October, but none now....waiting for the mother!

The seasonal flu often behaves like this as well...I, persoanlly got the seasonal but year before last in February as did my daughter.

We just have to keep our hands clean and be careful! Stay away from crowds, etc!

good post, thanks!

posted November 21, 2009 03:47 PM         

no vaccine will prevent any mutated version of any virus from invading a host,, and it appears this H1N1 is a hell of a muting mother! even the experts admit that it is a shot in the dark, they guess what seasonal viruses will appear and produce their vaccines according to their statistical analysis. if i remember correctly, somewhere around 30%?

however, never been a gamblin' woman, never aspired to throw the dice or draw a card, this is what each and everyone of us do when we take the vaccines.

(funny i am eyeball deep in a statistics course now and so many of my chapters are about gambling! this is so much more interesting to me!!!)

i made a gamble when i got the seasonal and H1N1 vaccines, but hell, afterall, tis a gamble just to pull out onto a highway thesedays and my reasons for gambling are worth it!

the diseases we have always vaccinated our children against, ex polio, mumps, rubella, etc. were done away with, at some level and did not mutate for what ever reasons and that is why, i beleive, were/are successful.

but these ugly flu viruses are very smart, and mutate, (as does HIV)....

still a shot in the dark...the vaccines...

posted November 24, 2009 08:41 AM         

My point was the mutation ability of the virus, of any and all viruses for that matter, and that is why the seasonal flu vacc works only 30% of the time, virus are way, way smarter than we, evidently.

As far as HIV goes, there is no chemical preventative (vaccine) but folks have lived long lives with anti-viral type medicines, a cocktail prepared to keep the HIV virus from building and getting stronger, however the medications do not prevent HIV from mutating. (as Tami flu for the H1N1 and the seasonal does not either)

I do not understand your repsonse, Randall, There was no inference, obvoius or subtle, that HIV does not cause AIDS, a mere point in the mutating capabilities of these super bugs.

t~~~

posted November 24, 2009 08:55 AM         

I post on this topic to offer my ovservations as a health care professional. I report in truth and honesty of what I observe and know from my formal education in nursing.

I think I have a pretty good perspective coming from where I work, my patient population are largely unhealthy, unfunded Mexicans who carry within their bodies alot more nasties than H1N1.

I am not the media, I have no reason to lie, I am just reporting what I have seen, what I deduce and what I know.

And to the cospiracy theorists, be biological terrorism or not, from our own governemnt or someother, it is here for us to deal with.

geeezzzz........posting on this forum is sometimes more risky than taking the H1N1 jab could ever want to be.

posted November 24, 2009 11:07 AM         

and there are many thousands of people in africa LIVING with aids without all the expensive medical interventions - i believe people around the world are outgrowing HIV.

many years ago when i was feeling paranoid about where to find wholesome untainted food and water for my baby, i realized it was up to us to adapt (or mutate) or we will just become extinct. individually and collectively. we can only do so much as far as selecting our food and environment...unless you want to move WAY out in the country and grow all your own organic, and even then if you are near farmland there will be locals who spray and otherwise tamper with the water, air and earth...