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T O P I C R E V I E WRandallA CNN poll today found Trump ahead by 1 point among likely voters and 2 points in a 4-way race. If you recall, CNN had Hillary 9 points ahead of Trump not long ago. That's a 10-11 point dip for Hillary! You can read the entire article at the link, as well as see the charts and graphs. Here are some noteworthy excerpts:There are three big shifts between the two CNN polls. First, Trump improved his standing among independents. Second, he has consolidated support among Republicans. And, third, the new poll moves from registered voters to likely voters.The combination of those things is significant. The transition to a likely voter pool tends to favor Republicans for the simple reason that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats. There's a correlation between tendency to vote and income, race and age. Older, whiter, wealthier Americans vote more regularly — and when they vote, they vote more for Republican candidates. So once CNN moved to likely voters, there's a natural shift toward Trump.But the shift is bigger than that, as we can see when we compare the network's July poll with its new one. Trump improved dramatically with independents, gaining 17 points just among registered voters. He's improved with whites without a college degree, a bastion of his support. He's improved with men by 11 points. Again: That's among registered voters. When you consider the likely voter pool, the changes are bigger.In July, Trump got 84 percent of the Republican vote. Among likely voters in the new survey, he gets 93 percent — just shy of the percentage of support Clinton gets from Democrats.Potentially more worrisome for Clinton supporters is that Trump's supporters are more likely to say they're enthusiastic about voting. More than half of Trump voters say they're very or extremely enthusiastic about going out to vote. A fifth of Clinton backers say they're not enthusiastic about voting at all.If the national race is as close as this poll suggests by November, such an enthusiasm gap could spell bad news for Clinton. Since Democrats (often younger and nonwhite) vote less regularly, Clinton will need people to feel inspired to go vote. This poll suggests that her base doesn't really feel that way.This shift also sheds light on another question. We noted last month that Trump's core base of support, white men without college degrees, were generally less likely to say they were certain they'd vote in November. It's probably still the case that they're less likely to vote than college-educated white women, but it doesn't seem to be hurting Trump much. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/06/why-you-should-panicrejoice-over-that-new-poll-from-cnn-whoever-you-support/ juniperbSorry; nope. Battleground states have her ahead and they are the factors. But, you knew that ------------------Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.Linda GoodmanRandallShe's ahead with electoral votes, but the debates will put an end to that. You have two months to come to terms with it, because Trump will be the next POTUS.farfarawaySo I predicted the chances of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump for this elections based on astrology- check it out http://www.farfaraway.co/blog/who-will-be-the-next-US-president. You probably don't need to worry about polls after reading this.juniperb quote:Originally posted by Randall:She's ahead with electoral votes, but the debates will put an end to that. You have two months to come to terms with it, because Trump will be the next POTUS. sure Randall, sure.------------------Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.Linda GoodmanjwhopLots of assuming that Hillary The Corrupt is going to carry all the usual Blue states and has an electoral edge. Large assumption since Trump has put Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps New Jersey, New Hampshire and others into play. There's a real possibility the electoral map will be changed on November 8, 2016.juniperbJwhop, there is also a chance it will snow on your petunias today but I`m not banking on it.------------------Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.Linda GoodmanRandallNBC poll shows Trump leading by 19 points with veterans. Bluejay RandallNot much of one for Hillary.jwhopYou may be right juni. We're expecting a big drop in temperatures here, from 92-93-94*F, all the way down to 87*. Perhaps I should dig my Petunias up, put them in pots and be prepared to bring them inside when temperatures plummet and snow threatens. RandallWith Hillary saying stupid stuff like she thought "c" meant it was alphabetized, she made a mistake voting for the Iraq war (a slap in the face of the families of those who died there), and ISIS is praying to Allah taht Trump wins, the lead is narrowing in swing states. Most are tied or a point off. NC has Hillary only 4 points up. Also, we now know she smashed her 13 Blackberries with a hammer, and she used Bleachbit on her e-mails AFTER Congress subpoenaed her. What was she hiding? Yoga videos?
There are three big shifts between the two CNN polls. First, Trump improved his standing among independents. Second, he has consolidated support among Republicans. And, third, the new poll moves from registered voters to likely voters.
The combination of those things is significant. The transition to a likely voter pool tends to favor Republicans for the simple reason that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats. There's a correlation between tendency to vote and income, race and age. Older, whiter, wealthier Americans vote more regularly — and when they vote, they vote more for Republican candidates. So once CNN moved to likely voters, there's a natural shift toward Trump.
But the shift is bigger than that, as we can see when we compare the network's July poll with its new one. Trump improved dramatically with independents, gaining 17 points just among registered voters. He's improved with whites without a college degree, a bastion of his support. He's improved with men by 11 points. Again: That's among registered voters. When you consider the likely voter pool, the changes are bigger.
In July, Trump got 84 percent of the Republican vote. Among likely voters in the new survey, he gets 93 percent — just shy of the percentage of support Clinton gets from Democrats.
Potentially more worrisome for Clinton supporters is that Trump's supporters are more likely to say they're enthusiastic about voting. More than half of Trump voters say they're very or extremely enthusiastic about going out to vote. A fifth of Clinton backers say they're not enthusiastic about voting at all.
If the national race is as close as this poll suggests by November, such an enthusiasm gap could spell bad news for Clinton. Since Democrats (often younger and nonwhite) vote less regularly, Clinton will need people to feel inspired to go vote. This poll suggests that her base doesn't really feel that way.
This shift also sheds light on another question. We noted last month that Trump's core base of support, white men without college degrees, were generally less likely to say they were certain they'd vote in November. It's probably still the case that they're less likely to vote than college-educated white women, but it doesn't seem to be hurting Trump much. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/06/why-you-should-panicrejoice-over-that-new-poll-from-cnn-whoever-you-support/
------------------Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.Linda Goodman
quote:Originally posted by Randall:She's ahead with electoral votes, but the debates will put an end to that. You have two months to come to terms with it, because Trump will be the next POTUS.
sure Randall, sure.
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