posted November 23, 2004 09:49 PM            

BAGHDAD (Nov. 23)

- Shivering in the cold of a winter Baghdad evening outside a Shi'ite mosque closing its gates for the night, Ahmed al-Sinjari says he is determined to vote in Iraq's Jan. 30 election -- whatever the risk.

"I'm 19. Since I was born, all I've seen is poverty," said Sinjari, who is unemployed. "I hope elections can give us prosperity. I'll vote even if it's dangerous because we need to make sacrifices to get Iraq out of this mess."

Most Iraqis view the prospect of elections with a mixture of hope and fear. Insurgents have threatened a campaign of violence to derail the country's first free elections in decades.

Election officials have been threatened and some food distributors, who have been giving out voter registration cards along with monthly rations, have been told by guerrillas they will be killed unless they destroy the documents.

The election has divided Iraq along sectarian lines. The country's 60 percent Shi'ite majority wants the polls to go ahead on time to formalise its leading role in Iraq after decades of oppression under Saddam. Kurds in the north, autonomous since 1991, also back the elections.

But Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, which makes up about 20 percent of the population, fears it may be sidelined. Violence in Sunni areas has thwarted efforts by Sunni groups to organize politically, and many Sunnis are worried that election violence could prevent them voting and stifle their voices.

Several Sunni parties have demanded a delay in the election -- for an assembly that will draw up a new constitution -- and say they will boycott them if they go ahead on time.

But even in Baghdad's staunchly Sunni Aadhamiya neighborhood, formerly praised for its loyalty by Saddam Hussein, many Sunni Arabs say they are keen to vote.

"There are definitely more who want to participate than those who want to boycott," said Abu Mohammed, 31, a food distributor who has been handing out voter registration cards in Aadhamiya. Voting rights come with ration cards, a relic of Iraq's Saddam-era trade sanctions regime.

"A lot of people came as soon as they knew the forms were available. Even I was surprised how eager they were."

SOME DISSENT

Abu Mohammed, who preferred to give his nickname for fear of being indentified, concedes not all Iraqis support the polls.

"There are those who say they are going to rip up the forms and the elections are illegitimate. But they are free to not have their voice heard," he said.

But he has received no threats, and he plans to vote: "I know it may be dangerous to vote, but I could die tonight lying in my bed. I might as well die for something that is worth it."

One 64-year-old man pushing cart through the streets of Aadhamiya said he would vote, but again declined to give his name because he feared for his safety.

"I hope we can elect someone who can give us a bright future," he said. "I cry for Iraq every night, it's been hijacked by people who want to send us back 50 years."

Ahmed Yusuf, 18, speaking outside his house in Aadhamiya, said security fears might stop him voting. "I don't know if I'm going to vote, if it will benefit me then I will," he said.

In Shi'ite neighborhoods of Baghdad, the response to the voter registration drive has been enthusiastic.

"I went and handed out all the registration forms in my area as soon as I got them to make sure people would vote," said food distributor Abu Mahmoud, 55, in the Shi'ite Shula area.

"They all seemed very enthusiastic on voting to make sure we have a fair and democratic constitution."

In the Shi'ite holy city of Najaf, ravaged in August when U.S. troops put down an uprising by radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, there is near-total support for the elections.

"I will go and vote because the elections will give us our sovereignty back. I don't care if the voting center is targeted because life and death are in God's hands," said 48-year-old Mohammed Yusuf.

In the Kurdish north, which has seen much less violence than other areas, voters are also registering in large numbers.