posted April 24, 2006 09:43 AM              

Juan Cole is Professor of History at the University of Michigan

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Iran Can Now Make glowing Mickey Mouse Watches

Despite all the sloppy and inaccurate headlines about Iran "going nuclear," the fact is that all President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday was that it had enriched uranium to a measely 3.5 percent, using a bank of 180 centrifuges hooked up so that they "cascade."

The ability to slightly enrich uranium is not the same as the ability to build a bomb. For the latter, you need at least 80% enrichment, which in turn would require about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran does not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb, and since its leaders, including Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, say they do not want an atomic bomb because it is Islamically immoral, you have to wonder if they will ever have a bomb.

The crisis is not one of nuclear enrichment, a low-level attainment that does not necessarily lead to having a bomb. Even if Iran had a bomb, it is hard to see how they could be more dangerous than Communist China, which has lots of such bombs, and whose Walmart stores are a clever ruse to wipe out the middle class American family through funneling in cheaply made Chinese goods.

What is really going on here is a ratcheting war of rhetoric. The Iranian hard liners are down to a popularity rating in Iran of about 15%. They are using their challenge to the Bush administration over their perfectly legal civilian nuclear energy research program as a way of enhancing their nationalist credentials in Iran.

Likewise, Bush is trying to shore up his base, which is desperately unhappy with the Iraq situation, by rattling sabres at Iran. Bush's poll numbers are so low, often in the mid-30s, that he must have lost part of his base to produce this result. Iran is a great deus ex machina for Bush. Rally around the flag yet again.

If this international game of chicken goes wrong, then the whole Middle East and much of Western Europe could go up in flames. The real threat here is not unconventional war, which Iran cannot fight for the foreseeable future. It is the spread of Iraq-style instability to more countries in the region.

posted April 25, 2006 12:15 AM              

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The real threat here is not unconventional war, which Iran cannot fight for the foreseeable future. It is the spread of Iraq-style instability to more countries in the region.

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posted April 25, 2006 10:58 AM              

For months now the Bush administration has been attempting to bait Iran into first strike by flying nuclear weaponry onto ships withing range of Iran's radar. They are doing this baiting so that it can justify their already planned war with Iran if they strike first.

Reason tells us that you can't go into the country next door and take it over and oust the leader in a pre-emptive war without the surrounding countries attempting to arm themselves in defense of a similar attack on them. It is Bush who is causing other nations, especially in the Middle Eastern area, to want to build nuclear weapons. I mean, wouldn't the U.S. do that if Canada or Mexico were attacked by China or some other country and taken over in a pre-emptive strike?

Also you brought up a very good point about Israel and our government not only allowing them to have nuclear weapons, but supplying them with arms also. Is is any wonder our govenment is hated by so many in the Middle East? We have been anything but just to the arabic people in favor of Israel. And Israel, once the oppressed, are now one of the worst oppressors in the world. That often happens when the oppressed come to power.

Striking Iraq is one thing, Hussein was not liked much by other arab nations because of the way he treated his own people, but beginning a war with Iran is truly opening up pandora's box onto the world. The world will become a very messy place because it will be seen as a strike against the muslim religion by a self-professed Christian leadership. The leader of Iran is just as nuts as Bush and while Bush wants this to be his legacy, as he sees it as his calling from God ( shades of the Christian Crusades here ) the leader of Iran sees it as the beginning of the Jihad. Definitely it will bring on WWIII if Bush is not stopped. NOW!

posted April 25, 2006 07:53 PM            

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It's ok for Israel to have hundreds of nuclear bombs and to use them (for defence of course). And they have bommbed Iran in the past. But if Iran even thinks about attempting to enrich uranium...that's it...It's war!

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posted April 30, 2006 02:30 AM              

It is amazing, Johnny because the Jewish people have been oppressed throughout history. You would think that would make them more humane in their treatment of the Palestinians and their arab neighbors. Instead, the oppressed have risen up to become oppressors themselves.