posted July 14, 2006 12:14 AM              

quote:

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Radicalizing the Middle East will in the long term jeopardize Israel’s security, and increase the odds of this war spreading.

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He is right and the proof of that is what is taking place now in the Middle East.

Options for U.S. Limited As Mideast Crises Spread

By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 13, 2006; Page A19

The Bush administration suddenly faces three rapidly expanding crises in the Middle East, but it has limited options to defuse tensions in any of them anytime soon, U.S. officials and Middle East experts say.

Israel has sent troops into Gaza and Lebanon over three captured soldiers -- one held by Hamas in Gaza and two seized yesterday by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The United States and its allies set a collision course with Iran over its nuclear program. And there is mounting concern that Iraq's sectarian violence is crossing the threshold to a full-blown civil war.

A common thread in the three crises is Iran -- for its support of the two Islamist groups, its alleged funding and arming of Iraqi militias and extremist groups, and its refusal to give a final response to the Western package of incentives designed to prevent it from converting a peaceful energy program into one to develop nuclear weapons.

"There seems to be a hand in each one of these -- Iran's and Syria's," Assistant Secretary of State C. David Welch said in a telephone interview from Amman, Jordan. "Today does cross a threshold because, as Hezbollah has now said, this action was planned. It was intended to escalate and widen the battleground."

U.S. tensions with Iran have not been this high -- or covered so many issues -- since the 1979-1981 hostage crisis, said Shaul Bakhash, an Iran expert at George Mason University. Shortly after Iran's 1979 revolution, 52 Americans were seized at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held hostage for 444 days.

The common tactic in the three crises appears to be daring defiance by Iran and its allies, particularly in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, to gain position at the same time they are facing mounting pressures. "Here you have actors who are basically pariahs who are trying to find their way back in. They're doing it the way they know best -- brinksmanship," said Robert Malley, director of the International Crisis Group's Middle East program. "They want to change the rules of the game."

Because of the simultaneous crises, the Bush administration is poised to use the Group of Eight summit of industrialized nations in Moscow this week to rally support against Iran as a bad actor unwilling to embrace the standards of the international community, U.S. officials say. The United States is also pushing for a new resolution at the United Nations next week on Iran's failure to suspend uranium enrichment.

The White House said it is holding Iran and Syria responsible for the flare-up along Lebanon's border because of their long-standing support for Hezbollah. It charged that the seizure of two soldiers was deliberately timed to "exacerbate already high tensions in the region and sow further violence.

"Hezbollah's actions are not in the interest of the Lebanese people, whose welfare should not be held hostage to the interests of the Syrian and Iranian regimes," a statement said.

Iran's role differs in each crisis, as do the issues.

The most pressing is the new violence along Israel's borders. Overnight, the confrontation with Hamas mushroomed dramatically into a confrontation that includes Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Iran is using Hezbollah to improve its own leverage, analysts say.

"The Iranians think they have a regional role," Bakhash said. "If the Israelis are beating up the Palestinians in Gaza, they may feel compelled as supporters of the Palestinian cause to have Hezbollah take a stand at this difficult moment." Hezbollah was founded in 1982 with the funding, arms and training by Iranian Revolutionary Guards dispatched to Lebanon after Israel's invasion.

On the nuclear issue, Tehran has taken a tough position on its right to enrich uranium for its civilian energy program, which is allowed under terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but which can be subverted for a nuclear weapon. Iran says that the United States particularly wants it to surrender this right to undermine its long-term development as a modern nation. But several Western nations are convinced Iran is intent on procuring a nuclear weapons capability.

In Iraq, Iran has fostered sectarianism by aiding fellow Shiites in powerful militias, including renegade cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's militia and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq's Badr Brigades, which were originally trained in Iran, U.S. officials say. The militias have defied calls to disarm, undermining the control of the new government and preventing smaller Sunni militias from cooperating as well. U.S. officials say Iran's goal is to prevent stability and a U.S. victory in Iraq that might lead to pressure on Iran.

The Bush administration has few ways of directly pressuring Iran on any of the three fronts. "They have sanctioned themselves out of leverage on Iran," Malley said. "They have cornered themselves out of a lack of influence on any of the parties that are driving this -- Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran. Counseling restraint or condemning actions is pretty meager when you think of the influence the United States should be wielding."

The United States reached out to Arab allies -- Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia -- to weigh in with Syria and, through Damascus, to Iran. In Paris for talks on Iran's nuclear program, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called on all sides to "act with restraint." She also talked to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan.

But the U.S. options stand in stark contrast to the U.S.-brokered cease-fires in 1993 and 1996 between Israel and Hezbollah, via Syria.

Israel imposes Lebanon blockade

Israel is imposing an air and sea blockade on Lebanon as part of a major offensive after two soldiers were seized by the militant group Hezbollah.
Israeli warships have blocked Lebanese ports, and its international airport was closed after Israeli bombing.

A Lebanese cabinet minister said the Israeli response was disproportionate, and called for a ceasefire.

Raids on targets across south Lebanon have killed at least 35. Two have died in Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

The operation comes as Israel continues a separate offensive in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli soldier was captured there last month.

The offensive in Lebanon follows a day of heavy fighting in which the Israelis suffered their worst losses on the border for several years.

Eight soldiers were killed and two were injured, in addition to the two captured in a Hezbollah ambush. The captured men have now been named as Ehud Goldwasser, 31, and Eldad Regev, 26.

Hezbollah guerrillas also fired volleys of rockets at the northern Israeli coastal town of Nahariya, killing one Israeli and injuring 14 others.

They also fired seven rockets at the town of Safed, 15km (9 miles) inside the Israeli border, injuring 11 people. One woman later died of her wounds.

Hezbollah has threatened to attack the Israeli port city of Haifa if Israel bombs Beirut. Israel has warned people in the Lebanese capital's southern suburbs to evacuate.

But it is not clear whether Haifa, which is 30km (19 miles) from the Israeli border, is within range of Hezbollah's rockets.

The Israeli army says several rockets have landed more than 20km (12 miles) south of the border, suggesting that Hezbollah has managed to extend their range.

Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev told the BBC that Israel was responding to "an unprovoked act of aggression" by Lebanon.

But Lebanese minister Naila Mouawad said Israel had responded disproportionately. The Lebanese government wanted a ceasefire, she said, calling for the two captured soldiers to be returned to Israel.

US President George Bush described Hezbollah as a "group of terrorists who want to stop the advance of peace".

Speaking in Germany, he said Israel had the right to defend itself, but its action should not weaken the Lebanese government.

France and Russia condemned Israel's "disproportionate use of force".

Blockade

An Israeli military spokesman said Israeli naval ships had entered Lebanese waters to block the transfer of "terrorists and weapons to the terror organisations operating in Lebanon".

Earlier, three missiles hit runways at Beirut airport, the country's only international airport, forcing its closure. Flights have been diverted to Cyprus.

An Israeli army spokesman said the airport was used to supply weapons to Hezbollah.

The blockade follows wide-ranging Israeli air raids on southern Lebanon, which killed at least 35 civilians.

Among the dead were two whole families - one of 10 people and one of seven - killed in the homes near the town of Nabatiyeh, officials said.

The Hezbollah television station al-Manar in southern Beirut was also hit, injuring three.

Responsibility

Israel said its jets hit 40 Hezbollah targets.

Beirut is largely cut off from southern Lebanon after Israeli missiles and bombs hit key roads and bridges, correspondents say.

Israel has said it holds Lebanon responsible for the soldiers' capture and views it as an "act of war".

Hezbollah has said the captured soldiers will not be returned without a release deal for Palestinian, Lebanese and other Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora denied any knowledge of the Hezbollah operation and refused to take responsibility for the soldiers' capture.

Hezbollah's political wing is a significant force in Lebanese politics and has one government minister, while its powerful military wing has controlled the border zone since Israeli forces pulled out in 2000.

Volatile mix

Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz said Israel would "not allow Hezbollah forces to remain on the borders of the state of Israel".

In Gaza, Israeli jets attacked the Palestinian foreign ministry building in Gaza City, injuring at least 10 people.

Israel has kept up air strikes and other military action against Gaza since the capture of Israeli soldier Cpl Gilad Shalit by Palestinian militants two weeks ago.

The BBC's World Affair's correspondent Nick Childs says the confrontations in Gaza and Lebanon are ringing alarm bells among world leaders.

He says the combination of an untried and apparently uncertain Israeli government, plus tensions that could easily extend to Syria and Iran, are creating a volatile mixture.