posted October 20, 2006 07:38 PM            

October 20, 2006

Summary
The Republican National Committee's latest ad - a 2006 version of President Johnson's famous 1964 "Daisy" commercial against Barry Goldwater - invokes the threat of a nuclear attack by al Qaeda.

With no soundtrack but the tick-tick-tick of a timer, the ad shows quotes from bin Laden deputy Ayman Al-Zawahiri saying "we purchased some suitcase bombs" and that the 9/11 attacks were "nothing compared to what you will see next." That's followed by a graphic image of a rapidly expanding orange-yellow globe that looks like a nuclear fireball.

The ad accurately quotes accounts of what bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri have said. The images of al Qaeda fighters are taken from al-Jazeera broadcasts and are apparently genuine. However, by using powerful visual images, the ad invites a conclusion for which the RNC offers no proof: Voting for Democrats risks nuclear incineration. That's an appeal to fear more than reason.

Analysis
This ad first appeared Oct. 19 as an Internet-only spot on the RNC's home page, and the party announced the next day that it would appear Oct. 22 on "national cable TV," without specifying which network or networks.

Using LBJ's tactic

The RNC ad imitates the famous LBJ "Daisy" ad, which showed a small girl counting petals as she picked them, followed by a count-down to a nuclear explosion and mushroom cloud. In that ad, Johnson's voice is heard saying "These are the stakes, to make a world in which all of God's children can live, or to go into the dark. We must either love each other, or we must die." An announcer then says, "Vote for President Johnson on Nov. 3. The stakes are too high for you to stay home."

quote:

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RNC Ad "The Stakes"

(On Screen: “What is yet to come will be even greater”
-Osama Bin Laden, Al Jazeera, 12/26/01
“With God’s permission we call on everyone who believes in God…to comply with His will to kill the Americans.”
-Osama Bin Laden (The World Islamic Front, Fatwa, 2/23/98)
[Text Fades: “kill the Americans”]
“They will not come to their senses unless the attacks fall on their heads and…until the battle has moved inside America.” -Osama Bin Laden
(Interview, Al-Jazeera, 10/21/01)
[Text Fades: “inside America.”]
“We sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other central Asian states, and they negotiated. And we purchased some suitcase bombs.” -Ayman Al-Zawahiri (“Al Qaeda: We Bought Nuke Cases,” New York Daily News, 3/22/04)
[Text Fades: “suitcase bombs.”]
“Our message is clear—what you saw in New York and Washington and what you are seeing in Afghanistan and Iraq, all these are nothing compared to what you will see next.” -Ayman Al-Zawahiri (“Al Qaeda Threatens More UK, U.S. Attacks,” CNN.com, 8/4/05)
[Text Fades: “nothing compared to what you will see next.”]
“What is yet to come will be even greater”
These Are The Stakes. Vote November 7th.
Mehlman: The Republican National Committee Is Responsible For The Content Of This Advertising.

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The ad uses quotes (all accurately cited) from bin Laden and his top lieutenant threatening renewed attacks on the US on an even greater scale than those of 2001. The most provocative is a claim attributed to Al-Zawahiri in 2004, when he was quoted as saying that al Qaeda bought "some suitcase bombs" (presumably nuclear) after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The quote is from a 2004 New York Daily News story reporting that bin Laden's "authorized biographer" Hamid Mir was told by Al-Zawahiri that, "If you have $30 million, go to the black market in central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist, and a lot of smart briefcase bombs are available. . . They have contacted us. We sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other central Asian states, and they negotiated. And we purchased some suitcase bombs."

Empty boast or real threat?

In fact, there is reason to believe that's just an empty boast. Laura Holgate, currently the vice president of Russia/New Independent States Programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), testified before the House Homeland Security Committee on May 26, 2005 about misplaced nukes. During the hearing Holgate was asked specifically whether suitcase-sized nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union could have passed through the hands of terrorists. Holgate responded:

Holgate: I would say . . . that the suitcase nuke thing is a little bit of a red herring. The point is there may be tactical nuclear weapons missing, and those are things to worry about, but the specific scenario of the suitcase environment, for those who've looked at that research, has not turned out to be quite as stated by General Lebed in the mid '90s when that was such a scandal.

She was referring to a claim made by former Soviet General Aleksandr Lebed in 1997, when he said on CBS's 60 Minutes that the Soviet Union had created perhaps 100 portable atomic demolition munitions in the shape of suitcases, and that some were missing. When we asked Holgate if her testimony still held true today, Holgate responded:

Holgate: I stand by my 2005 testimony: it's almost certain the Soviet Union had suitcase nukes and highly likely that they were long ago destroyed. The mid-1990s hoopla created by Russian General Lebed's statements that there were dozens unaccounted for had no basis in fact.

NTI, which is devoted to keeping weapons from the former Soviet Union out of the hands of rogue nations or terrorists is headed by former Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia.

Lebed's claim was officially denied by Russian officials, and it is still not certain whether his claim is true or not. Even if it's true, however, there are technical problems with a suitcase-sized nuclear weapon that could make it unworkable as a terrorist weapon. The San Francisco Chronicle, for example, quoted Russian nuclear experts as saying that Zawahiri was bluffing about having a workable suitcase bomb. One expert was quoted as saying suitcase nukes have a lifespan of only one to three years and become "radioactive scrap metal" if components such as batteries and conventional explosives are not regularly replaced.

While it thus appears improbable that al Qaeda or any terrorist organization actually has or could get a workable nuclear device, that possibility still remains.

Implying what can't be proved

The RNC ad isn't as blunt as LBJ was when he said "We must love each other, or we must die," implying that his opponent Barry Goldwater might touch off a nuclear holocaust. But both ads refer to "the stakes" of the imminent election, inviting the conclusion that voting the wrong way carries a risk of death in a nuclear fireball.

Whether Democrats would actually be any less zealous than Republicans about keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists is a matter of opinion which we leave to the judgment of our readers. However, we do note that this ad offers no proof of that.

–by Brooks Jackson and Emi Kolawole

Sources
"U.S. Representative John Linder (R-GA) Holds Hearing on Building a Nuclear Bomb," Transcript. Congressional Quarterly Transcriptions. 26 May 2005.

Connor, Tracy. "Al Qaeda: We Bought Nuke Cases," Daily News (New York). 22 Mar 2004.

"The Perfect Terrorist Weapon; A Large Number of Small Nuclear Devices in the Shape of Suitcases Appear to Be Missing from the Russian Nuclear Stockpile," 60 Minutes: CBS News Transcripts. 7 Sept. 1997

posted October 20, 2006 08:19 PM            

demoscats have opposed every single Bush initiative to monitor terrorists, track terrorists, track their networks and track their finances. They offer nothing any reasoning person could possibly interpret as a plan to fight international terrorism.

demoscats are now whining about a campaign commercial which simply repeats what bin Laden and other terrorists have stated plainly; that they intend to kill Americans here in America.

demoscat response to these nuclear threats by terrorists is to attempt to hand terrorists a "Terrorist Bill of Rights". Call it the "Terrorist Protection Act of 2006".

demoscats cannot possibly be taken seriously on issues of national security. If bin Laden managed to lay his hands on a nuclear device or even highly enriched uranium, is there any doubt he would attempt to use it on America?

Yet, on issue after issue, demoscats have attempted to thwart every program American intelligence services use to identify, monitor, track, thwart, capture and kill terrorists who are waging war against the United States.

It is clear demoscats consider terrorists civil rights more important than protecting the United States..and our citizens.

The points made in the campaign ad are both true and valid. demoscats cannot be trusted with national security. demoscats offer nothing but retreat from terrorists and international terrorism.

posted October 21, 2006 02:01 AM            

What's clear is that you're a part of a party that peddles fear at every election.

What's clear is that without the War on Terror the Republicans wouldn't have an issue to stand on.

quote:

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The Bush plan is simple and effective. Find them and kill them. A fitting end for those enemies who attack the United States or threaten to do so. So much the better if they can be enticed to meet a bullet, bomb or missile far from the shores of America. Brilliant in fact.

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posted July 02, 2007 01:28 PM            

Demoscats were and are formulating a plan to surrender to terrorists, wave the surrender flag in Iraq and tuck their cowardly tails between their legs in an effort to put another war loss in the US column.

The lefts crowning achievement was forcing a loss on the US military and the United States in the Vietnam War. Trying for a repeat is just as contemptible as their first effort.

Ummm acoustic, North Korea has agreed to dismantle their nuclear reactor with which they were enriching uranium to weapons grade plutonium.

Time always catches up with your nonsense statements acoustic. Of course, by then you've already moved on to yet more nonsense and don't wanna talk about it.

Bush was right about North Korea and Bush was right about Saddam Hussein and Bush was right about attacking and killing radical religious terrorists.

On the other hand acoustic, I've yet to find an issue on which you were right.

According to your own definition of "lie", that makes you....as a spreader of false or inaccurate statements...a liar.

posted July 04, 2007 01:56 AM            

quote:

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The Bush plan is simple and effective. Find them and kill them. A fitting end for those enemies who attack the United States or threaten to do so. So much the better if they can be enticed to meet a bullet, bomb or missile far from the shores of America. Brilliant in fact.

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So which Koreans did Bush find and kill? Which Koreans met their death by bullet, bomb, or missile?

Yeah... none. So, not only did you misrepresent Bush's foreign policy plans, but you misrepresented the means by which Korea backed down. What YOU yourself said was incorrect.

Now let's go ahead and tackle Iraq for a second. You think things are going poorly now? Is that correct? You're now comparing this to Vietnam?

There is no Democrat that's in the position of Commander-In-Chief in this country. As far as I'm aware there's no Democrat serving as Secretary of any of the Armed Forces. Our forces have been at the sole command of the Republicans. Every failure of the military lies on Republican shoulders.

Let's cut the BS and take some personal responsibility for your party's f*ck ups. The only thing Republicans have proved with this conflict is that they can't plan or manage a conflict. There's no agility. Every decision to change tactics has come later than it should have. That's the reality of the situation.

posted July 04, 2007 05:18 AM              

I can completely relate with your feelings here:

quote:

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Republicans did not lead us to believe that this war would take a generation to get through, but now they just want more time, more time, more time! You know a 16 year old won't crash more than two cars before his or her parents will stop providing them with cars to crash. An employee whose consistently late for work on top of being a poor performer is also going to get the plug pulled on them. A CEO who can't provide a decent return to the shareholders is going to get ousted. That's life. That's reality.

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It is very disheartening to think we as Americans actually support this insanity.

NOTE: My definition of insanity being:
Doing the same thing again and again, expecting different results.

Time is up!
Game over...

Let's try something else

A silly vision just ran through my mind:
Would'nt it be a hoot if ever man and woman of military connection "Doing The Dirty Work" just up and went on strike!

hmm?

posted July 05, 2007 01:01 PM            

Bush, since he found out North Korea had violated the nuclear agreement the moron Jimmy Carter had negotiated, took exactly the right track.

Boy Stout Theme