posted February 21, 2007 06:04 PM            

In the wake of the U.S. House of Representatives passing a resolution that amounts to a vote of no confidence in the Bush administration's policies in Iraq, a new national survey by Alexandria, VA-based Public Opinion Strategies (POS) shows the American people may have some different ideas from their elected leaders on this issue.

The survey was conducted nationwide February 5-7 among a bi-partisan, cross-section of 800 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. The survey was commissioned by The Moriah Group, a Chattanooga-based strategic communications and public affairs firm.

The survey shows Americans want to win in Iraq, and that they understand Iraq is the central point in the war against terrorism and they can support a U.S. strategy aimed at achieving victory, said Neil Newhouse, a partner in POS. The idea of pulling back from Iraq is not where the majority of Americans are.

By a 53 percent - 46 percent margin, respondents surveyed said that Democrats are going too far, too fast in pressing the President to withdraw troops from Iraq.

By identical 57 percent - 41 percent margins, voters agreed with these statements: I support finishing the job in Iraq, that is, keeping the troops there until the Iraqi government can maintain control and provide security and the Iraqi war is a key part of the global war on terrorism.

Also, by a 56 percent - 43 percent margin, voters agreed that even if they have concerns about his war policies, Americans should stand behind the President in Iraq because we are at war.

While the survey shows voters believe (60 percent- 34 percent) that Iraq will never become a stable democracy, they still disagree that victory in Iraq (creating a young, but stable democracy and reducing the threat of terrorism at home) is no longer possible. Fifty-three percent say it's still possible, while 43 percent disagree.

By a wide 74 percent - 25 percent margin, voters disagree with the notion that "I don't really care what happens in Iraq after the U.S. leaves, I just want the troops brought home."

When asked which statement best describes their position on the Iraq War, voters are evenly divided (50 percent - 49 percent) between positions of "doing whatever it takes to restore order until the Iraqis can govern and provide security to their country," and positions that call for immediate withdrawal or a strict timetable.

27 percent said "the Iraq war is the front line in the battle against terrorism and our troops should stay there and do whatever it takes to restore order until the Iraqis can govern and provide security to their country."

23 percent said "while I don't agree that the U.S. should be in the war, our troops should stay there and do whatever it takes to restore order until the Iraqis can govern and provide security to their country."

32 percent said "whether Iraq is stable or not, the U.S. should set and hold to a strict timetable for withdrawing troops."

17 percent said "the U.S. should immediately withdraw its troops from Iraq."

posted February 22, 2007 12:02 AM            

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It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

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Thats not bad statistically in Social Science they allow for a 5% margin. In medicine its like .01% but in Social Sci this is quite not bad.

posted February 22, 2007 05:14 PM            

Public Opinion Strategies:
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES MOURNS REPUBLICAN LOSSES, CONGRATULATES MANY INDIVIDUAL WINNERS IN TOUGH RACES
The Republican polling firm of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) polled for the only freshman Republican U.S. Senator, one new Governor, and five new members of Congress. Overall, the firm polled for four winning U.S. Senate races, six winning GOP Governors, at least 46 Members of Congress, as well as numerous downticket statewide and legislative winners.

There's lots of interesting and notable items in the poll itself:

72% of the people polled are 45 years old or older. 25% of the total amount of people polled were 65 years old or older. This is the largest section of people polled.
Go to Page 5

In question 22 we find out that 49% of those polled voted for Bush in the last election versus 42% who voted Democrat.
Page 7

81% of the people polled were white.
Page 7

60% disapprove of the job Bush is doing.
Page 1

The Moriah Group began in 1994 when founder Davis Lundy took on the successful political campaign for U.S. Congressman Zach Wamp. http://www.moriahgroup.com/www/docs/101

Wamp's a Republican, of course.
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posted February 23, 2007 10:24 AM            

I've noticed your preference for the AP/Ipsos Poll. The Ipsos Group, a French company with headquarters in Paris. Of course I can understand your affection for the slanted polls they produce.

Now specifically, you take issue with the fact this poll was done by a Republican Research group. But this group has the best track record of finding where Americans stand on issues and they do that by delving further into issues than merely a surface question.

You also seem to want to imply Republicans were over sampled. However, looking at page 6, one would find the breakdown as follows.

Total Republicans........33%
Total Democrats..........35%
Total Lean/Independent...30%

This looks like 65% of those polled were not Republicans and more democrats were polled than Republicans. How about you acoustic. Does it look that way to you too?

On the issue of conservative Vs Liberal/Moderate, you would find this breakdown on page 6 also.

Total Conservative.......39%
Total Moderate/Liberal...59%

Now acoustic, in my book this certainly doesn't look like a loaded Republican poll. In fact acoustic, it looks like a poll designed to get at the real opinions of American voters...and in depth on various issues.

posted February 23, 2007 05:17 PM            

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I've noticed your preference for the AP/Ipsos Poll.

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I can make an argument against an AP poll just as easily. They only poll 1,000 or so people at a time. You can thank Moderator Ra for pointing out the utter worthlessness of most polls. For more scientific polls, I'd say Pew is good.

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But this group has the best track record of finding where Americans stand on issues and they do that by delving further into issues than merely a surface question.

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That's a load of sh!t quite frankly, and I'll qualify it as well as you did using the same technique: saying nothing of verifiable substance.

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You also seem to want to imply Republicans were over sampled. However, looking at page 6, one would find the breakdown as follows.

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Yes, I did show exactly how many of them had voted for Bush versus Kerry. I also showed what age groups and race they prefer to poll. What I didn't tackle was the income of polled, which, if anything, was equally damning.

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Total Republicans........33%
Total Democrats..........35%
Total Lean/Independent...30%

This looks like 65% of those polled were not Republicans and more democrats were polled than Republicans. How about you acoustic. Does it look that way to you too?

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Yes, it does look that way. You know why? Because it's designed to look that way. How difficult is it to find a Republican who claims to be an Independent? We already know what race, what age, and what income they were targetting. It's pretty easy to make the connection. Refer to my opening statement.

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Total Conservative.......39%
Total Moderate/Liberal...59%

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This really is the most telling write up, isn't it? Here is the whole question, and write up:

21. And, thinking a little about your political attitudes... Do you consider yourself to be...
Conservative,
Moderate,
...OR...
Liberal
... on most issues?
18% VERY CONSERVATIVE
20% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
39% MODERATE
12% SOMEWHAT LIBERAL
9% VERY LIBERAL
1% NOT SURE
1% REFUSED

39% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE
59% TOTAL MODERATE/LIBERAL

Notice the last two lines in particular. Aside from the mathematical errors, which are neither here nor there, we see that the polling company decided to frame the pollers in just two groups, though they collected data for seven groups. Why would they do that? Why did they decide to make the concession of the Moderates to the Liberal side? It doesn't take a genius to work out that they're attempting to illustrate that this poll is all about "Democrats" opinions. It's a simple manipulation done on purpose, and for a targeted effect. I have a difficult time believing that people can't see what's plainly obvious.

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Now acoustic, in my book this certainly doesn't look like a loaded Republican poll. In fact acoustic, it looks like a poll designed to get at the real opinions of American voters...and in depth on various issues.

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Even you can't be that gullible. Republican + Republican = Republican It's that simple.

Once again I'll put into perspective just how small a number 800 is. California 11th Congressional District had 206,264 (http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/1100.htm) voters this past election. 800 people is less than half a percent of the total voters in my Representative District. 800 people is just under 3.5% of the amount of people who voted in my city's last mayoral race. 800 people is far too small a sample to be considered a viable "national" survey. Broken down, that would be 16 people per state (though they haven't published anything claiming to have polled each state)!