posted October 14, 2009 01:46 PM         

What is the probability that the one planet will be aspecting one of the 5 planets at least one way?

posted October 14, 2009 03:24 PM         

Well, actually I am always striving for the 100% mark.

posted October 14, 2009 04:35 PM         

F = 2 x 10 x 1 / 360

But since it can either be A's Eros aspecting B's Psyche or A's Psyche aspecting B's Eros, guess that we should multiply the last formula for 2, coz F + F -> the sum of the probability of A's Eros aspecting B's Psyche and the probability of A's Psyche aspecting B's Eros.

Also, if I want to calculate the probability for a Double Wammy, then should I calculate it like this?

posted October 15, 2009 04:41 AM         

In your Kaali research,

a) did you use the average or the maximum orb for the probability calculation?

b) did you use ALL Kaali aspects or did you only count every chart once, no matter how many Kaali aspects there were?

posted October 15, 2009 05:16 AM         

Hi Comica,
Yes, for checking either A to B or B to A, the probability result has to be multiplied by 2.

Hi DD,
I used average probability to simplify my calculations. However, when I use exact probability, I get a better result because many orbs are less than 1 degree.

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Soul Mate Love Calculator

posted October 15, 2009 05:26 AM         

10101110101110101010101010000010101110101110101010101010000010101011000101010110001101
10101001011101011101010101010100000101010110001110010101011001010101010101010101110010

posted October 15, 2009 05:47 AM         

But how do we use the exact orbs for the calculation?

PA,

ssht, Grown ups are talking.

posted October 15, 2009 05:57 AM         

By "grown ups" you mean you and IQ?

I see.

Give me a minute.....

Hang on.....

posted October 15, 2009 06:42 AM         

so I have been doing a little research.

I have checked for aspects of planet X in male chart to planets A, B, C, D, E in female chart, and of planet X in female chart to A, B, C, D, E in male chart.

I used conjunction, opposition, trine, square, sextile, quinkunx and the antiscia / contrascias.

I have been looking at 42 synastry chart or 84 single charts.

To calculate the average orb I only counted the tightest orb of X to one of the 5 planets in the connected (synastry) chart. (sometimes X was making more aspects than one, but I think, counting them all it
would distort the result).

the average orb was 1.5 or 1 degree and 30 minutes.

So doing your calculation with this orb I get a probability of 25%.
Or would it be 50%?

So 1 in 4 charts would have such an aspect by chance. (or every second?)
Since I am looking at 84 charts, Planet X would make such an aspect in 21 (or 42) cases per chance.

Actually such an aspect occurred in 61 of 84 charts, that is approximately in 72% - 73% of the cases (instead of 25% or 50%?).

If I see the synastry charts as ONE unit (can I do that?), it occurred that only 2 synastry charts didn`t have at least one aspect of X to the mentioned planets in the other side at least one way (but in these cases at least one birthtime was unknown, and as Moon, ASC and MC were part of the five planets, it could well be that with their birthtime known they would fall into that category too).

Anyway, that means that 40 of 42 synastries had such an aspect, which is a 95% success.

Of course since some birthtimes are not known, the results could even get better or stay the same, but at least they couldn`t get worse.

Probably it would be interesting to differentiate between the real longterm couples (over 10 - 15 years) and the short term couples (5 years to 10 years) now.

posted October 15, 2009 07:16 AM         

Lets say we next see a conjunction of 3.6 degrees orb, [If we get 5 degrees, it fails the Apriori Astrological Definition of making an aspect, and ethically, we should not use it. ], the probability is
3.6 x 10 x 5/360 = 1/2.

And so on.

posted October 15, 2009 08:48 AM         

yes, I understand that. But if we have both an exact orb and an orb of 3.6, let`s say, how do we use all these orbs correctly for the probability calculation?

Well, I guess the easiest way would be to calculate the average orb.

posted October 19, 2009 06:26 AM         

But... when you suddenly have 40 out of 42 pairs making this link, it become anomalous even though there is a 50% chance of success.
it means you have attracted more connected couples than average. Or you have identified the most powerful 5 objects to check in synastry

A simple proof to your self. Just shuffle the couples and check the synastry, you may get only 22,23 or maybe 25 out of 42 pairs having the succesful link.

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Soul Mate Love Calculator

posted October 19, 2009 07:30 AM         

Actually I have done a second check, only using really longterm couples (at least 10 years, most are in the range of 15 - 25 years though, and mostly are either still together or have been until the death of one of the partners) this time.
I came up with 35 couples.
34 of these 35 couples were a success; for the woman of the failure-couple the birthtime was unknown, so this makes it a bit "shaky".

Anyway, only using conjunction, opposition, square, trine and sextile and quinkunx 33 of 35 charts were a success (but only in one case the quinkunx was the determining factor, in all other cases there was the presence of a conjunction, opposition, square, trine or sextile).

It`s interesting, but I still have to do the check with the control group.

Funny, I just remember that I have been dreaming of mathematics. I have NEVER dreamed of math. lol I hated that subject in school, cause I thought I was too stupid for it. Anyway last night I dreamed I had to solve an equation.
I really have been thinking too much about probability-calculations I think.