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katatonic
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posted February 28, 2012 08:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for katatonic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
from paul krugman in LISBON • Things are terrible here, as unemployment soars past 13 percent. Things are even worse in Greece, Ireland, and arguably in Spain, and Europe as a whole appears to be sliding back into recession.

Why has Europe become the sick man of the world economy? Everyone knows the answer. Unfortunately, most of what people know isn't true — and false stories about European woes are warping our economic discourse.

Read an opinion piece about Europe — or, all too often, a supposedly factual news report — and you'll probably encounter one of two stories, which I think of as the Republican narrative and the German narrative. Neither story fits the facts.

The Republican story — it's one of the central themes of Mitt Romney's campaign — is that Europe is in trouble because it has done too much to help the poor and unlucky, that we're watching the death throes of the welfare state. This story is, by the way, a perennial right-wing favorite: back in 1991, when Sweden was suffering from a banking crisis brought on by deregulation (sound familiar?), the Cato Institute published a triumphant report on how this proved the failure of the whole welfare state model.

Did I mention that Sweden, which still has a very generous welfare state, is currently a star performer, with economic growth faster than that of any other wealthy nation?

But let's do this systematically. Look at the 15 European nations currently using the euro (leaving Malta and Cyprus aside), and rank them by the percentage of G.D.P. they spent on social programs before the crisis. Do the troubled GIPSI nations (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy) stand out for having unusually large welfare states? No, they don't; only Italy was in the top five, and even so its welfare state was smaller than Germany's.

So excessively large welfare states didn't cause the troubles.

Next up, the German story, which is that it's all about fiscal irresponsibility. This story seems to fit Greece, but nobody else. Italy ran deficits in the years before the crisis, but they were only slightly larger than Germany's (Italy's large debt is a legacy from irresponsible policies many years ago). Portugal's deficits were significantly smaller, while Spain and Ireland actually ran surpluses.

Oh, and countries that aren't on the euro seem able to run large deficits and carry large debts without facing any crises. Britain and the United States can borrow long-term at interest rates of around 2 percent; Japan, which is far more deeply in debt than any country in Europe, Greece included, pays only 1 percent.

In other words, the Hellenization of our economic discourse, in which we're all just a year or two of deficits from becoming another Greece, is completely off base.

So what does ail Europe? The truth is that the story is mostly monetary. By introducing a single currency without the institutions needed to make that currency work, Europe effectively reinvented the defects of the gold standard — defects that played a major role in causing and perpetuating the Great Depression.

More specifically, the creation of the euro fostered a false sense of security among private investors, unleashing huge, unsustainable flows of capital into nations all around Europe's periphery. As a consequence of these inflows, costs and prices rose, manufacturing became uncompetitive, and nations that had roughly balanced trade in 1999 began running large trade deficits instead. Then the music stopped.

If the peripheral nations still had their own currencies, they could and would use devaluation to quickly restore competitiveness. But they don't, which means that they are in for a long period of mass unemployment and slow, grinding deflation. Their debt crises are mainly a byproduct of this sad prospect, because depressed economies lead to budget deficits and deflation magnifies the burden of debt.

Now, understanding the nature of Europe's troubles offers only limited benefits to the Europeans themselves. The afflicted nations, in particular, have nothing but bad choices: either they suffer the pains of deflation or they take the drastic step of leaving the euro, which won't be politically feasible until or unless all else fails (a point Greece seems to be approaching). Germany could help by reversing its own austerity policies and accepting higher inflation, but it won't.

For the rest of us, however, getting Europe right makes a huge difference, because false stories about Europe are being used to push policies that would be cruel, destructive, or both. The next time you hear people invoking the European example to demand that we destroy our social safety net or slash spending in the face of a deeply depressed economy, here's what you need to know: they have no idea what they're talking about.

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BearsArcher
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From: Arizona with Bear the Leo
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posted February 29, 2012 01:16 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for BearsArcher     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Greed & the desire to become something they could not sustain. That is the answer.

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emitres
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posted February 29, 2012 12:13 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for emitres     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
i can only speak for Italy so please bear that in mind... converting to the Euro was one of the stupidest things that country could have done... and while you're correct, BearsArcher, that it was motivated by greed it is only part of the initial problem...
the Euro was set to be equal value as the then DM ( German Mark ) as it was percieved to be more stable etc etc ( which was true )... it was also at a higher trade point - i don't recall the exact exchange rate of Lira to DM but it was significant ( in favour of the mark )
when Italy switched all sorts of interesting things within the country happened ----> corporations paid their employees with the new Euro at the exchange rate of Lira to DM... if you had been earning 100,000 Lira ( equivalent to $100 ) under the Euro you would now earn the equivalent of 75,000 Lira... these same corporations would sell their products, however, at an "across the board" price, treating the Lira and Euro as equal ( if you bought a shirt for 10,000 L that shirt was then sold at 10 E ) this applied to everything - housing, food, anything and everything that was now considered part of the European trading market... import/export in Italy increased but at a very disadvantageous cost... other variables tossed in there ( and as the article mentions a very unstable economic presence initally due to constant political instability ) and you have a great big mess... cost of living has always been on the high side - more central and north Italy - so companies don't necessarily want to open up shop... no companies = no work... Italy was known globally for it's artisan market but that also took a beating with the switch to the Euro - the silversmith now has to pay 1.5 times for the silver he uses, therefore has to charge 2 times to make a profit... the average tourist does not want spend that amount of money when he/she can buy a "Made in anyplace else" knockoff...
the Republican story isn't too far off though - Italy has an extrodinarily high number of "illegals" ( in quotations because the various gov't have never really attempted to crack down on this ) from all over the place... illegal alien = cheap labour for the Italian who wants to pay under the table to avoid taxation... for a country that's struggling - that has been struggling since WW2 - this is yet another factor in a long list...
we'll see what Sig. Monti can accomplish with a people that "are impossible to govern"

------------------
" Some define good as that which preserves, and evil as that which destroys; but destruction can be cleansing and purifying, for there is such a thing in both men and races as spiritual constipation, which comes from too much preservation of the status quo." ( Dion Fortune )

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katatonic
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posted March 14, 2012 05:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for katatonic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
yes, archer, greed, but not entirely on the part of the "little folk with their hands out"

this from a major player at goldman sachs explaining what goes on there (simply) and why he cannot work there anymore and keep his conscience happy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-l eaving-goldman-sachs.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all%3Fsrc%3Dtp&smid=fb-share

it's too long to copy here but not too long to read in a few minutes.

bear in mind that goldman sachs is a big player in the "credit crunch" going on in europe, re greece etc...

perhaps it is not the social safety net but unscrupulous investment banking practices (now where have i heard that before?) that is crushing them? that might be why sweden and others are currently doing just fine without the "austerity measures" and "privatisation of public institutions" others are having to bow down to?

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