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Author Topic:   Last minute predictions?
iQ
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From: Chennai, India
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posted November 05, 2012 09:12 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for iQ     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
272 - 281 for Obama. Popular Vote tied 50-50.

Basing my analysis on the fact that over 60% of Americans approved his handling of the "Sandy" Crisis.

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pire
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posted November 05, 2012 09:35 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for pire     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think he (obama) will get elected. I am not acquainted (?) with the electoral system in the US, but I imagine that he will get a larger victory than expected in popular vote. May be not...
I don't say that out of psychic powers but cause that is what I would like to happen. Although I must admit I would have been reluctant myself to vote considering the 2 offers. I heard about the HAMP program and the weakness of the government vis a vis the banks. He was afraid to appear to support those who were given loan that they couldn't afford. Where are the values of the democratic country? What is the american dream? The dream to eat or be eaten raw?

I think he will be elected by default.

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AcousticGod
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posted November 05, 2012 10:47 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Obama for the win.

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AcousticGod
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posted November 05, 2012 11:45 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
AstroVed via email:

2012 Astrological Prediction for U.S. Presidential Election

The first prediction is that the election results will be confusing, it may be a repeat of 2000 with possible recounts of votes. Accusations of voter fraud and tampering is possible. This election may be the catalyst to do away with the electoral college. The confusion is due to the 5 astrological conditions listed above.

The second prediction is more difficult and I am tempted to say, it's too close to call. In order to make an election prediction, we need to look at 4 astrological charts, which are as follows: President Barack Obama, Challenger Mitt Romney, 1776 USA Chart, and the Day of the Election.

President Barack Obama’s birth chart is quite strong and the transits are more favorable for him on election day.
1) Exalted Moon in birth chart makes Obama charismatic and likable.
2) The planet that rules his 1st house Saturn, is now exalted in his 10th house of career.
3) He is now running Saturn which activates a powerful yoga and it is exalted.

Challenger Mitt Romney's birth chart is even stronger, especially in terms of finances but the transits are not very favorable for him on the day of the election.
1) Powerful 10th house Sun gives Romney charisma but debilitated Moon makes him appear cold.
2) The planet that rules his 1st house Venus, is now debilitated in his 5th house of luck.
3) He is now running Sun which activates a powerful yoga but it is currently debilitated.
4) Romney's current planetary cycles are more in-line with the US chart than Obama's.

The 1776 USA chart shows the US is in a Mar's period and Mar's is in Gemini, a very changeable sign. So undecided US voters are likely to make a change for change sake.

At first and even second glance, Obama looks to be the clear winner. But Saturn is the planet that rules grief and disappointment. And too much Saturn can cause the voters to doubt him. Also the Sun's debilitation is cancelled which favors Romney.

Prediction: It will be a very close race. The day will start off in Barack Obama's favor but by late afternoon as Mercury goes retrograde, the tide will turn in favor for Romney. It may take several days for a winner to be announced. When the dust settles, my prediction is that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 US presidential election.

After analysing the 4 charts my logical mind could not decide but my intuition very clearly says Romney (despite my own bias for Obama). The astrology shows that Mitt Romney would actually be a very good president. If elected he would work tirelessly to fix the economy, and most important he has the karma to fix the economy. So if you don't like my prediction then you need to get out and vote for Obama, and of course the same goes for Romney. Good Luck and may the best candidate for the country win.

Astroved Astrologer,
Raja Mulloy

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mockingbird
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posted November 05, 2012 12:33 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mockingbird     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
http://darkstarastrology.com/2012-election-predictions/

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NativelyJoan
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posted November 05, 2012 12:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for NativelyJoan     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
My intuition says President Obama will win reelection. It will be close, but Romney's not getting anywhere near that white house unless he requests to visit it per Obama's approval. This has probably been posted on LL somewhere, however according to a panel of renowned astrologers, predictions favor Obama's winning. Not surprising.

USA Today: Panel of astrologers predicts Obama victory and Reuters: Astrologers say celestial charts favor Obama over Romney.

"Astrologers Predicting Obama

The five UAC astrologers who unanimously predicted Obama to win were:
Gary Christian, Astrolabe.
Edith Hathaway, edithhathaway.com.
Claude Weiss, Astrodata.
Nina Gryphon, “With these positive factors, Obama is sitting pretty for reelection this year.” Forecast: U.S. Presidential Election 2012, Gryphon Astrology Blog, March 17, 2012.
Chris Brennan, “it is our opinion that Obama will be elected to a second term.” Prediction for the 2012 US Presidential Election, Patrick Watson and Chris Brennan, The Political Astrology Blog, April 29 2012.

Other astrologers backing Barack Obama include:
Gurmeet Singh, “Obama will win 2012 elections very easily,” Will Barack Obama win the 2012 Presidential Election?, Vedic Astrology, November 26 2010.
Dharmaruci, “So Obama is likely to stay in power until Neptune has finished with him, which will be well into his second term.” The US Election and a Warning for Obama, Astrotabletalk, January 09 2012.
Bernadette Brady and Darrelyn Gunzburg, “Thus Venus indicates Obama’s return to the White House.” The Heavenly Patterns of 2012, Visual Astrology, January 2012.
Peter Stockinger, “there seems nothing to suggest that he may not be successful in his quest for re-election.” Libra Ingress 2012, Obama & the US Presidential Elections, Peter Stockinger’s Traditional Astrology Weblog, March 10 2012.
Curtis Manwaring, “As it is I cannot say for certain, but I think Obama will win a 2nd term;” Election 2012 – Obama vs Romney and Beyond, The Lost Horoscope X Files, May 06 2012.
Paul Saunders, “a win for President Obama.” Barack Obama versus Mitt Romney – Who does astrology say will win the 2012 US Presidential Election?, Solaris Astrology, May 08 2012.
Christopher Kevill, “While we don’t yet know Romney’s running mate, I do think it is quite likely he will lose the election.” US Presidential Election 2012: Obama’s Saturn vs. Romney’s Sun, Modern Vedic Astrology, June 04 2012.
Anthony Louis, “I would give Obama just slightly more than a 50% chance of winning based on this horary.” Who will win the 2012 presidential election?, Anthony Louis – Astrology & Tarot Blog, August 18, 2012.
Tony Dickey, “These add to the image problem Romney had before selecting Ryan.” Romney-Ryan Horoscope: Challenges Ahead, mundaneastrologers.com, August 18 2012.
Larry Schwimmer, “It is my belief that Barack Obama will win his re-election bid.” Astrology: The Obama-Biden Ticket – Winners or Losers, Huffington Post, September 5 2012.
Lauren Howard Coleman, “So it certainly looks like the President will be re-elected in November.” US Election 2012: Obama or Romney?, Astroblog, September 19 2012.
Cranberry on the astro.com forum has predicted Obama."

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NativelyJoan
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posted November 05, 2012 12:38 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for NativelyJoan     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mockingbird:
http://darkstarastrology.com/2012-election-predictions/


Mockingbird, you beat me too it! Well I posted it if those interested aren't fans of clicking links.

Edit: I personally can't wait for the election to be over so the US population can at least pretend not to be so divided. Romney's platform is based on a division of the population. The realization that this will be a close race is highly disturbing considering Romney's viewpoints and his political agenda. This country needs to unite and I don't think that's possible under a candidate who'd like nothing more then to see half the population sail off on a boat far away, as to not disrupt his corrupt financial schemes. This is not how you unite a country and this is not how you succeed or make important changes to benefit the whole, not just one sector.

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fairaqua
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posted November 05, 2012 12:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for fairaqua     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Romney win..


Reasons (aside from personal)

Red Skin Rule

quote:
there is a high correlation between the outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game prior to the U.S. Presidential Election and the outcome of the election: when the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins the electoral vote for the White House; when the Redskins lose, the non-incumbent party wins. This coincidence has been noted by many sports and political commentators and has held true in every election since 1940, except for that of 2004.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redskins_Rule


Republicans Have Won Every November 6th

quote:
Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been 6 presidential elections held on November 6th and Republicans have won all six. That means next Tuesday, the 7th Presidential election held on this date, will either break or uphold a streak that began in 1860 with the election of Abraham Lincoln.

http://nation.foxnews.com/history/2012/11/01/republicans-have-won-every-november-6th-presidential-election-1860


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jwhop
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posted November 05, 2012 01:06 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Electoral vote

Romney 300+
O'Bomber 238-

Romney wins 53% to 47%

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AcousticGod
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posted November 05, 2012 01:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The wrong side absolutely must not win

The past several weeks have made one thing crystal-clear: Our country faces unmitigated disaster if the Other Side wins.

No reasonably intelligent person can deny this. All you have to do is look at the way the Other Side has been running its campaign. Instead of focusing on the big issues that are important to the American People, it has fired a relentlessly negative barrage of distortions, misrepresentations and flat-out lies.

Just look at the Other Side's latest commercial, which take a perfectly reasonable statement by the candidate for My Side completely out of context to make it seem as if he is saying something nefarious. This just shows you how desperate the Other Side is and how willing it is to mislead the American People.

The Other Side also has been hammering away at My Side to release certain documents that have nothing to do with anything, and making all sorts of outrageous accusations about what might be in them. Meanwhile, the Other Side has stonewalled perfectly reasonable requests to release its own documents that would expose some very embarrassing details if anybody ever found out what was in them. This just shows you what a bunch of hypocrites they are.

Naturally, the media won't report any of this. Major newspapers and cable networks jump all over anything they think will make My Side Look bad. Yet they completely ignore critically important and incredibly relevant information that would be devastating to The Other Side if it could ever be verified.

I will admit the candidates for My Side do make occasional blunders. These usually happen at the end of exhausting 19-hour days and are perfectly understandable. Our leaders are only human, after all. Nevertheless, the Other Side inevitably makes a big fat deal out of these trivial gaffes, while completely ignoring its own candidates' incredibly thoughtless and stupid remarks — remarks that reveal the Other Side's true nature, which is genuinely frightening.

My Side has produced a visionary program that will get the economy moving, put the American People back to work, strengthen national security, return fiscal integrity to Washington, and restore our standing in the international community. What does the Other Side have to offer? Nothing but the same old disproven, discredited policies that got us into our current mess in the first place.

Don't take my word for it, though. I recently read about an analysis by an independent, nonpartisan organization that supports My Side. It proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that everything I have been saying about the Other Side was true all along. Of course, the Other Side refuses to acknowledge any of this. It is too busy cranking out so-called studies by so-called experts who are actually nothing but partisan hacks. This just shows you that the Other Side lives in its own little echo chamber and refuses to listen to anyone who has not already drunk its Kool-Aid.

Let's face it: The Other Side is held hostage by a radical, failed ideology. I have been doing some research on the Internet, and I have learned this ideology was developed by a very obscure but nonetheless profoundly influential writer with a strange-sounding name who enjoyed brief celebrity several decades ago. If you look carefully, you can trace nearly all the Other Side's policies for the past half-century back to the writings of this one person.

To be sure, the Other Side also has been influenced by its powerful supporters. These include a reclusive billionaire who has funded a number of organizations far outside the political mainstream; several politicians who have said outrageous things over the years; and an alarmingly large number of completely clueless ordinary Americans who are being used as tools and don't even know it.

These people are really pathetic, too. The other day I saw a YouTube video in which My Side sent an investigator and a cameraman to a rally being held by the Other Side, where the investigator proceeded to ask some real zingers. It was hilarious! First off, the people at the rally wore T-shirts with all kinds of lame messages that they actually thought were really clever. Plus, many of the people who were interviewed were overweight, sweaty, flushed and generally not very attractive. But what was really funny was how stupid they were. There is no way anyone could watch that video and not come away convinced the people on My Side are smarter, and that My Side is therefore right about everything.

Besides, it's clear that the people on the Other Side are driven by mindless anger — unlike My Side, which is filled with passionate idealism and righteous indignation. That indignation, I hasten to add, is entirely justified. I have read several articles in publications that support My Side that expose what a truly dangerous group the Other Side is, and how thoroughly committed it is to imposing its radical, failed agenda on the rest of us.

That is why I believe 2012 is, without a doubt, the defining election of our lifetime. The difference between My Side and the Other Side could not be greater. That is why it absolutely must win on November 6.
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/rtd-opinion/2012/aug/19/tdopin02-the-wrong-side-absolutely-must-not-win-ar-2138869/

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mockingbird
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posted November 05, 2012 01:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mockingbird     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
fairaqua - I was about to post the Redskins Rule:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redskins_Rule

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NativelyJoan
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posted November 05, 2012 02:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for NativelyJoan     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thanks for sharing that article Acoustic. It's an interesting article, however I think the author should have done more theorizing about probable solutions to this inherent conflict within our political system. Though I assume the piece is simply meant to be rhetorical. Does he support transforming our political system? Updating it? Is there a way to move forward with our current political system while avoiding these tendencies we have as a society to politically annihilate one another because of our differences. It's a clever piece that makes viewers aware of what they may (or may not) already know. But what are we going to do about this conflict? That's my only fault with the piece. It's never just enough to be aware, something has to be done. But that's just how I tend to view things.

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juniperb
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posted November 05, 2012 03:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
popular vote tie

electoral vote tie.

House chooses President... so, who will they choose

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We dance around the ring and suppose, but the secret sits in the middle and Knows
Robert Frost

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juniperb
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posted November 05, 2012 03:44 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Re the "The wrong side absolutely must not win"

I thought I read it all on this monkeying back and forth on who`s side is the evilist... until today

I read in an article that the 69 people in the Caribbean and U.S. death toll of at least 113 and thousands of homes that were destroyed or damaged by the gigantic storm (let us remember 2 innocent children were counted in the dead)was caused by Obama.

You read that right Obama caused the storm and devastation by not standing up for Israel. This Countrys fair and just punishment for electing Obama.

Sorry but that is galling, demeaning ignorance of the highest caliber to the American public.

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We dance around the ring and suppose, but the secret sits in the middle and Knows
Robert Frost

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PixieJane
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posted November 05, 2012 04:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for PixieJane     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I really don't know.

At first I thought Obama was a shoo-in. While there was a very vocal minority it was clear to me that most just ignored them choosing not to engage with them, so while loud they weren't anywhere as large a number as would seem. Furthermore, the WTF comments by so many Republicans would seem to make anyone of decent heart turn away from them in disgust, and I've even been asked by people from South Africa and Argentina about things our Republicans have been saying & doing lately, and when people under THOSE governments can look at our Republicans and go "WTF!?" in disbelief then you know it's bad.

But 2 things make me unsure:

One, I don't think anywhere as many people under 30 are going to vote for Obama (and maybe not at all) because Obama wasn't the magic pill they thought he was (it didn't help that Obama has broken his word in more ways than one). And people like 25 and younger still tend to be either very idealistic (and so neither major choice is acceptable) and/or very cynical (same result).

Two, a Christian Coalition has basically blitzed the Obama campaign, from fundies actually running ads saying you'll burn in Hell for voting for Obama (and I personally know a preacher in California who said that, plus America would be destroyed like Sodom) to a Catholic bishop ordering sermons that try to equate Obama with Stalin and Hitler (you'd think they'd be familiar enough with the latter to not make that mistake, but then I've noticed church leaders have no problem bearing false witness, that's how you know who they serve, God or Satan, by their fruits of lies and worse). And they're so powerful that not even the IRS has the guts to revoke their tax-exempt status as they should. And when a similar Christian Coalition (including Mormons) did a blitz for Prop 8 (nearly every commercial mentioning, "God," "Jesus," or "Bible" at least once, as did virtually everyone who said why they voted for it) it passed...and it's California. Granted, California doesn't live up to its rep of godlessness save in a few areas like San Francisco and West Hollywood (and especially consider that many immigrants tend to be religious and social conservatives), but it's still California...so if California gets on its knees to a Christian Coalition, what will the USA as a whole do, especially in the large Bible Belt regions? And keep in mind that taking the "Christian vote" is gonna take away from the "black vote" as well.

I just wish the Christian Coalition as I call them could instead turn their efforts to stamping out real problems...can you imagine if they turned their passions to helping people instead of hurting? Heck, even going after rapists (or child molesters in their church instead of defending them and enabling them to do it again) with the same passion they'd go after a mentally challenged 11-year-old getting an abortion would be an improvement. But then you should know the tree by the fruit it bears and a bad tree can't help but produce bad fruit. Unfortunately, get enough of them together and they can make the rest of us eat their bad fruit, too, just as they've done historically and their counterparts do in places like Iran (a place they obviously want America to become like with a Christian paint job).

I'd say Romney was a shoo-in now since the Christian Coalition backed him but one thing that makes me uncertain still is many who would be swayed by that might've already been accounted for (that is, they were decided even before being told how to vote) in which case it will make less of a difference than I first thought.

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juniperb
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posted November 05, 2012 04:53 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
PJ, the Christian Coalition you mentioned goes hand-in-hand with my above post.

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We dance around the ring and suppose, but the secret sits in the middle and Knows
Robert Frost

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jwhop
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posted November 05, 2012 11:28 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
As in 2000, Election Day falls on ‘Mercury in retrograde’

By: Neil W. McCabe
11/5/2012 10:10 PM

Astrologers are watching Election Day with caution because at 6:05 p.m., on the East Coast, the planet Mercury will go into retrograde motion, a time of confusion and miscommunication.

The last time a presidential election was held during Mercury Retrogade was in 2000.

Sandra-Leigh Serio, an astrologer who is the president of the Rocky Mountain Astrologers Association, said Mercury Retrograde will bring chaos to the election. “It is going to make a mess.”


Sandra-Leigh Serio

Serio said the retrograde means broken communications and problems with transportation.

“We are all kind of waiting to see,” she said.

“Mercury really is a trickster up there, it really screws things up,” she said. Mercury is the clerk and messenger of the gods, who governs paperwork, data and communications.

In 2000, Serio said she and other astrologers anticipated the problems that surrounded the vote counting that year between President George W. Bush and then-vice president Albert Gore Jr.

The difference between the 2000 election retrograde and the 2012 election retrograde is that in 2000, Election Day fell at the end of the retrograde, instead of the beginning, she said. This year, Mercury will begin its retrograde while going into the constellation Sagittarius, and when it resumes its previous path, or goes “direct,” Nov. 26 it will proceed into Scorpio.

That day, secrets about the election may be revealed, she said. “However, Nov. 14, Mercury re-enters Scorpio as it is moving in apparent backward motion, so that could also be a day when errors are discovered.”

Because Election Day falls at the beginning of retrograde instead of direct, as it did in 2000, it means it will be worse, she said.

Scorpio is a sign that brings controversy, deception and secret activity, she said. “We might not have an answer right away—or we will have an answer, but it will be disputed.”

Sagittarius is a sign that represents theories, views and higher law and rulings, which could mean court challenges for the results, she said.

“Because it is a sign of transportation it could mean people will have trouble getting to the voting booth,” she said.

Serio said starting an administration under these conditions does not augur well. “It will not be a day in the park, whoever it is.”

James Braha, an astrologer based in Longboat Key, Fla., said, “There are going to be astrologers, who are going to say: ‘Oh my God, the election! They won’t know who wins and it’s going to go on for weeks.’”

Braha said he would not stick his neck out to predict massive chaos, but it is possible.

Glenn Perry
Glenn Perry, an astrologer based in Haddam Neck, Conn., said during the voting, there could be break downs in the technology.

“There is likely to be a delay, something prevents a resolution of the matter,” he said.

Everything could be going along fine for the election, and then things start to go very wrong, said the astrologer, who has worked professionally since 1975. “This is all very speculative because you are only looking at one planet.”

The events of any given day are the sum of many different factors, big trends and little trends, he said. “The total gestalt is very difficult to read for any kind of final outcome.”

Perry said, “Generally speaking with Mercury going retrograde there will be challenges to the voting process. You don’t have to be an astrologer to see that one coming.”

Braha said Mercury Retrograde is the one thing about astrology non-astrologers should know about.

“Planets don’t go backwards,” he said. “They only appear to go backwards, and when they do appear to go backwards, they do have an effect in astrology.” This apparent reversal is called retrograde.

The Florida astrologer said all planets retrograde, the sun and the moon, however, do not.

“Mercury goes backwards two-and-a-half times a year for 21 days each time,” he said.

“If I was ever going to try to prove astrology—something I would never really do, but if I did, or make someone see that the planets do have an effect on people’s lives, this is what I would use, I would use the Mercury Retrograde, because it’s so effective. It works,” he said.

For the 10 days before Mercury appears to stop and reverse direction, it appears to slow down, a period called “the shadow of the retrograde,” he said. “When it stops, it is called stationary.”

When Mercury slows down, anything that is not in good working order will break, he said. “If you have a television, car or computer that has been quirky for the last two or three months, it has a likelihood of breaking down.”

For this retrograde, the shadow began about Oct. 26, he said.

The purpose of the retrograde is to go back and fix what needs to be fixed, to clear out inboxes and to clean things that need to be cleaned, he said.

It is not a time for beginning new relationships, contracts or initiatives, he said.

Having an election during the retrograde is fearful, he said. “You are starting something new, then it starts going backwards.”

Braha said while Mercury Retrograde is a small trend, a larger astrological trend is Pluto square Uranus (PsU), which began June 2012 and will not be resolved until March 2015. During PsU, the two planets will appear to line up next to each other, and then one will fall back. It is during the line-ups that events become extreme.

Pluto square Uranus is responsible for all the revolutions, such as the Arab Spring riots, especially things going crazy in Libya, and the Occupy Movement, he said. The PsU has the same force as the Pluto Uranus Conjunction in the 1960s, which was responsible for The Beatles, the assassinations and the revolutions of that time.

Perry said the larger astrological trends favor a Romney presidency and inclined the body politic in a more conservative direction.

Around the time of the last midterm elections, the outer planets, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto, all changed signs, he said.

For all three to change signs around the time of Obama’s first term is extraordinary, he said. The first to change was Pluto, which went from Sagittarius to Capricorn. Pluto governs the economy and the financial world. When it was in Sagittarius, it was about expansion, recklessness and living beyond one’s means.

“When Pluto entered Capricorn at the end of 2008, it signaled a new time of frugality, cutting back ambitions and concrete goals,” he said. “The national climate now favors conservative fiscal policies. That is just the nature of Pluto in Capricorn.”

Obama is on the wrong end of a massive sea of change, he said. “The archetypal weather has radically shifted in a direction contrary to the prevailing mood in public sentiment, predominant values that were occurring while he was campaigning.”

Uranus had been in Pisces for seven years, 2003 to 2010, and now it is in Ares, he said.

Capricorn and Ares are the two most conservative signs in the whole Zodiac, he said. “They most closely define the conservative values.”

“Ares is about self-reliance, free-enterprise, market competition and pulling-yourself-up-by-your-own-bootstraps,” he said. “It is about not being a victim, not relying on government, taking initiative and entrepreneurship—even a strong military.”

Pluto moving into Capricorn and Uranus into Pisces combined with Pluto squaring Pluto come together for the spirit of rebellion seen in the Arab Spring and the rise of the Tea Party — and in a sense the Occupy Movement, he said. “It is the: ‘We want change and we want it now!’ mentality.”

In 2011, Neptune went into Pisces, which is actually more in alignment with Democratic values and the identification with being a victim, he said. “We’re the 99 percent victimized by the 1 percent.”

Perry said the outer three planets will not shift out of their current state for another six years.
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/11/05/like-in-2000-election-day-falls-on-mercury-in-retrograde/

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juniperb
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posted November 06, 2012 09:05 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote

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We dance around the ring and suppose, but the secret sits in the middle and Knows
Robert Frost

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Linda Jones
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posted November 06, 2012 11:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Linda Jones     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I liked Nate Silver's interview on the Charlie Rose show (PBS). He's a statistician who's devised a mathematical model PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) to calculate odds of a certain result. He initially used the model to predict baseball stats.

In 2007 he used his model to correctly predict the outcome of the 2008 election. He's now using it to predict the 2012 election.

He's faced criticism and backlash mostly from people who don't like math ; people who don't like the outcome he predicts, and political pundits who ... make their earnings thro' highly subjective campaign spins. Let's face it, Silver's PECOTA is a threat to their livelihood, many of whom come out with books during election times.

Nate Silver has published The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — But Some Don't

I like his data based approach which is sans emotional political rhetoric and hyperbole. Nothing beats pure rational thought amidst irrational human behavior

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About Nate Silver (he's a Capricorn):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.[4]

In 2010, Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times.[5][6] The newly renamed blog, FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus,[7] first appeared in The Times on August 25, 2010. In 2012, FiveThirtyEight won a Webby Award as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.

Silver's book The Signal and the Noise was published in September 2012.

********************

Nate Silver's prediction for the 2012 election--
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/11/06/ nate_silver_nyt_polling_expert_gives_obama_a_big_edge_on_election_day.html

Nate Silver Says Obama Has a 91.6 Percent Chance of Winning the Election

Today is Nov. 6, which means it's Election Day. It also means that Nate Silver's much-debated "forecast" and "now-cast" are now one and the same. Here are the latest (and we assume final) projections from the New York Times' polling blogger and psephologist, whose ongoing forecast has become one of the leading secondary storylines this campaign season as much of Washington's chattering class refused to believe this race is/was anything but a toss-up.

Electoral vote: President Obama 314.6, Mitt Romney 223.4. That's a 15.6-vote swing since Oct. 20, and the president's largest advantage in Silver's forecast since Sept. 10, when Obama was projected to win 314.9 electoral votes to Romney's 223.1

Popular vote: Obama 50.9 percent, Romney 48.3 percent. That's a half-point gain for Obama (and a 0.2 drop for Romney) in the past week. Obama's never trailed in Silver's forecasted popular vote, but hasn't topped the 51.6 percent mark since the forecast began early this summer.

Chances of winning: Obama 91.6 percent, Romney 8.4 percent. The final forecast gives the president his best chance of winning that he's had all season in Silvers' Nov. 6 forecast. Previously, Obama's best odds had topped out at 87.1 percent on Oct. 4. Silver's now-cast, meanwhile—which is supposed to provide a snapshot of where the president stands on a particular day (and not where it would likely stand on Election Day)—gave Obama a 98.1 percent chance of winning back on Sept. 30.

It's worth noting that as Silver's critics became louder during the campaign's final days, his projections did not hedge toward the center, something that (intentionally or not) would have given him more cover if Romney ends up winning the election. Instead, over the past seven days Silver's forecast for Obama's chances of victory increased by 14.2 percent (his now-cast likewise climbed by 12.1 percent).

Silver's confidence in an Obama victory stems heavily from the president's prospects in Ohio, a battleground state that Romney likely needs to win to have any chance at pulling off the upset. Silver's latest calculations give the president a 91.4 percent chance of taking the Buckeye State.

********************

Nate Silver has admitted to not voting this year, possibly (my own conjecture) so as to not want to bias himself toward either outcome.

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I have a DO NOT DISTURB sign on my imagination

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Linda Jones
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posted November 06, 2012 11:24 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Linda Jones     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by juniperb:
Re the "The wrong side absolutely must not win"

I thought I read it all on this monkeying back and forth on who`s side is the evilist... until today

I read in an article that the 69 people in the Caribbean and U.S. death toll of at least 113 and thousands of homes that were destroyed or damaged by the gigantic storm (let us remember 2 innocent children were counted in the dead)was caused by Obama.

You read that right Obama caused the storm and devastation by not standing up for Israel. This Countrys fair and just punishment for electing Obama.

Sorry but that is galling, demeaning ignorance of the highest caliber to the American public.


This is an example of the WTF statements/conclusions Pixie spoke about. The rest of the world must be soooo in awe of the American intelligence Good ol' US of A The World's Leader!

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Linda Jones
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posted November 06, 2012 11:42 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Linda Jones     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Did anyone watch SNL this weekend? The Chris Christie spoof was hilarious!!!!

Guy playing Christie speaking with emphasis on every word:

"We're. New. Jersey-ians! We. don't. complain! We. get. even! So. sleep. with. one. eye. open. Sandy!!!!

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AcousticGod
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posted November 06, 2012 11:49 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I like fellow Capricorn Nate Silver, too. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/political-analyst-nate-silver-bets-farm-obama-163402465.html

Stocks are up! (Have to keep myself entertained with something)

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Linda Jones
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posted November 06, 2012 03:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Linda Jones     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by AcousticGod:
I like fellow Capricorn Nate Silver, too.

Acoustic, can you believe one of the criticisms about him was that he's too effeminate to analyze polls??!!!

Silver responded by saying---

"This is pretty awesome," Silver wrote on Twitter. "Per http://unskwedpolls.com, I am 'a thin and effeminate man' & therefore not to be trusted."

Silver summarized the attack this way: "Unskewedpolls argument: Nate Silver seems kinda gay + ??? = Romney landslide!"

I love geeks (he's a self professed one)! Their reasoning usually surpasses any other known form of intelligence

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AcousticGod
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From: Pleasanton, CA
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posted November 06, 2012 04:12 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Data speaks louder than words.

I do watch SNL, too.

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Faith
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posted November 06, 2012 06:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Faith     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I've been saying this over and over so I'm sorry to bore anyone...

But the Psychic Twins predicted Romney and I want them to be right.

Otherwise I have almost zero preference for one of these dudes over the other. Well maybe SLIGHT preference for Romney, since he's a Pisces. And that's the whole reason for my tiny preference.

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