|
Author
|
Topic: The IPCC: Outright Lies, Incompetence, Or Just Plain Wrong?
|
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 10:23 AM
  
The IPCC has been claiming for years that the 11 warmest years on record were between 1995 and 2006 (except for 1996). Furthermore, they have claimed that the hottest years were in 1998 and 2005. Now they say there has been no warming for 17 years. Do the math. No warming since 1993!IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 10:41 AM
Are you having a bout of ADD or something? You're posting an awful lot. Is that to make some inconvenient topics go down, or what's the deal?A simple search un-does your desire to make a plateau out as some kind of regression IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 12:08 PM
Duh, that's what I said. How can we have the hottest years on record when there has been no increase in 17 years? For there to be hottest years, there has to be increases. More Liberal math. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 12:09 PM
I said nothing about regression. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 12:24 PM
1. There has been no warming in 17 years. 2. The NOAA claims that 14 of the hottest years have been in the last 15. As increases in temps have to occur for 14 years to be the hottest on record, both of the above cannot be true. One has to be an error at best or an outright lie. It's so clear that someone in grade school could understand it. So, which one is correct? A simple search will also show the IPCC saying the same. Were the calculations that people worship as gospel wrong? IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 12:31 PM
I saw topics at random popping up on my screen when checking my e-mail, so I posted them. There is nothing inconvenient about any topics here. The ADD comment is understandable, since you are angry to see your religion crumble. But the math isn't that diffucult, is it? I know you just repeat what you are told without thinking, but for once just reason it out. No need for insults. Do the math. IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 01:11 PM
Wait. You post:
And then expect that you can call other people liars? Surely, someone as "educated" as you in climate science knows that when we speak of warming we're talking about a statistical long term trend, right? We're not talking about every single year there's a marked increase in global temperature. Knowing that the warming is judged on a long term basis, it's quite easy for any scientific entity to say both that there's warming as well as no warming for 17 years. Positive warming is judged in the long term (And has been occurring). Negative [or neutral, if you prefer] warming is judged within a given time frame. (A time frame within a piece of the long term trend where the overall trend isn't holding up as significantly as it had been). We both just saw that graphic Jwhop posted, which bears that out. quote:
The ADD comment is understandable, since you are angry to see your religion crumble.
It wasn't an insult as far as I'm concerned. I probably have ADD myself to some extent. I do, however, always wonder what the reason is for a flurry of posting. Moreover, this religion stuff continues to be more problematic for you than for me. I'm not the one with "beliefs" in contradiction to the science. You're the one repeating what you're told without thinking as shown in my explanation above. You could've easily have understood what I understand if you had wanted to, and especially if you had thought about it, but you didn't, and you didn't almost by choice, because I KNOW I've posted here about statisticians backing the view of global warming as a long term trend (a bit of context necessary for reconciling what you thought were diametrically opposed ideas). IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 01:31 PM
If you subtract 17 from 2013 you get no warming since 1993. So, both statements cannot be true. It's not rocket science. The IPCC and NOAA are lying about one or the other. If you forget about posting mantras and think instead, you will see that someone has been misleading people. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 01:35 PM
Claiming a long-term trend and then pulling up isolated years as examples of the highest temps on record is a contradiction. Either the trend matters or the years do. The 15-year trend shows 14 of the highest increases in history, yet no warming had occurred for 17 years. IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 01:44 PM
I don't post mantras. I post reasonable things only to have them disregarded in favor of nonsense.If you subtract 17 from 2013, you get 1996. 1998 is the most thrown around year for the statement, "No statistical warming has occurred since." Dr. Pachauri is chairman of the IPCC. He, individually, is throwing around the 17 years number. Because you seem to like that data, I'm surprised that you accuse the IPCC of lying. Shouldn't you rationally enjoy the chairman of the IPCC throwing you a bone, and giving the appearance of integrity to the data? quote:
you will see that someone has been misleading people.
I do see that you and Jwhop continue to attempt to mislead people. I don't see the actions of Dr. Pachauri as an attempt to mislead. IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 01:54 PM
quote:
Claiming a long-term trend and then pulling up isolated years as examples of the highest temps on record is a contradiction. Either the trend matters or the years do. The 15-year trend shows 14 of the highest increases in history, yet no warming had occurred for 17 years.
It's not. The trend matters with regard to global warming. The isolated years matter as a test of the statistical trend. Bearing these considerations in mind, going back to January 1996 is a fair test for statistical significance. And, as the graph shows, there has been no warming that we can statistically distinguish from zero throughout that period, for even the rightmost endpoint of the regression trend-line falls (albeit barely) within the region of statistical insignificance. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/13/no-significant-warming-for-17-years-4-months/
Obviously, a break in the trend disputes the trend to a degree. That's rational and reasonable. However, we're nonetheless caught at these static high temps. Further, they're predicting another El Nino event to raise temperatures again soon. So...do you throw out climate change/global warming despite being trapped at higher temps with no sign of cooling, or do you persist in urging people to understand the situation?
IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 02:28 PM
Oops, my bad. I did the math in my head. But at 1996, everything I said still holds true.No warming since 1996! There has been no warming for 17 years OR there have been 14 of the highest temps on record. So, which one is true? Which one is a fabrication? Last time I checked, 1998 (the hottest year on record, which would require a warming) came after 1996. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 02:32 PM
We are not trapped at higher temps with no chance of cooling. What higher temps? The falsified data ones?  IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 02:36 PM
quote:
There has been no warming for 17 years OR there have been 14 of the highest temps on record. So, which one is true? Which one is a fabrication?
Both are true. I've already explained it: Talk of no warming is in the statistical sense, however, the Earth already warmed to a record level...and stayed there, thus creating 14 of the highest temps on record. Do you really not understand? IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 02:49 PM
quote:
We are not trapped at higher temps with no chance of cooling. What higher temps? The falsified data ones?
We are. No falsified temps as we already established in the second post. Did you miss this giant pic in Jwhop's post on your thread?: 
It cuts off past years too early to show the warming trend, but you could draw a line from 1996 to the present, and see that there has been variation, but also that temps have hovered at the top of warmth chart. Here's a historical temperature chart only based on the deviation to some certain norm. It's clear that the 60's were the bottom, and the temperature mean rose ever since. That's the overall global warming. Now the warming has tapered off at the top of that scale.
 Here's another graph of just mean temperatures per decade that also illustrates the already-occurred warming.
 IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 04:12 PM
I thought Climategate already established that the data had been tampered with.IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 04:49 PM
But even if the data is presumed true, it doesn't explain why we are at "critical" levels of CO2, yet there is no alarming rise in temp. I expect to see a decline in temps over the next two decades. What then? What will be the cause of that? Oh, yeah, global warming. In 15 years, you will be spouting off how CO2 causes a drop in temps if that's what your IPCC and NOAA tell you. Polly want a cracker?IP: Logged |
AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 8100
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 06:18 PM
No, Climategate didn't do anything of the sort. Temperature records have been thoroughly reviewed by scientists around the world, and even scientists that would hate to attribute human activity as a possible cause don't dispute the rise in temperature. The warming is fact. Whether manmade CO2 is a contributing factor is the source of considerable debate amongst laymen, and far less debate among scientists.I'm very glad that you seem to suddenly understand what I've been trying to say. I thought I was going to have to draw you a picture myself to illustrate what we're talking about. quote:
I expect to see a decline in temps over the next two decades.
I expect your belief is not based on data or science. quote:
In 15 years, you will be spouting off how CO2 causes a drop in temps if that's what your IPCC and NOAA tell you.
That's the scenario you dream about. It's likely just dreaming, though. The fact is, the temperature rose at an alarming rate, and then leveled off. If we see some statistical cooling over a long enough time, then your position will be somewhat vilified (though you'll still have been on the wrong side of caution and science). If we don't, I predict you'll keep giving us the poor thinking that lead to stuff like we've tackled today in this thread. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 07:59 PM
No, I still don't understand what you are saying. I was referring to the data which shows a rise in temp, which could be falsified for all I know. I said if it's accurate, it still a problem. I won't be villified if things cool off. You will still be saying what the alarmists say. They are not going to give up power without a fight. They will blame a drop in temps on man and on CO2, and you will continue to parrot them. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 08:01 PM
And did you read the e-mails in Climategate?IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 08:04 PM
There are scientists who dispute the warming. So, no, it isn't fact. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 08:11 PM
And for the record, no, I do not believe the Earth has been warming. I have been posting articles from various scientists to that effect for a few years here...that there has been no increase in warming...and hearing the IPCC admit this feels like vindication to those scientists. IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 06, 2013 08:56 PM
For those who want to read what other scientists say, click below. Warming temps are settled science? Nope! http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/06/15/forget-the-temperature-plateau-earth-undergoing-global-cooling-since-2002-climate-scientist-dr-judith-curry-attention-in-the-public-debate-se ems-to-be-moving-away-from/ IP: Logged |
Randall
Webmaster Posts: 34061
From: Saturn next to Charmainec
Registered: Apr 2009
|
posted November 07, 2013 10:16 AM
The IPCC and NOAA add "fudge numbers" to the data. It's standard to do so. But it's misrepresenting the real data. IP: Logged |
Lindaland
UBBFriend: Email This Page to Someone! 
