posted October 21, 2014 10:57 AM            

Democrats have been counting on winning New Hampshire, and not too long ago incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen had been steadily maintaining a double digit lead over former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. But Brown has been surging forward and two new polls released today, the Suffolk/Boston Herald and the UMass/WBZ surveys both show Shaheen leading by only three percent, which is far less than the margin of error for both polls. Statistically speaking, this means the New Hampshire race is a dead heat, a tie. Given the momentum, Scott Brown could be peaking at just the right time to pull off an upset and win this race.

While Kay Hagan has been leading in her reelection effort in the very “purple” state of North Carolina, Republican nominee Thom Tillis has been tying her to President Obama and Obamacare and is only behind by three percent in the last survey by Democrat-leaning polling firm PPP. A recent poll by Survey USA had Tillis leading by one percent. There is no way the Democrats have any hope of winning a majority in the Senate if Tillis wins the North Carolina seat.

In a race that has been close for months, Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell now leads Democrat nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight percent in a recent survey by left-leaning polling firm Rasmussen Reports. There have been news reports that national Democrats have pulled any further financial support from Grimes and are viewing the Kentucky race as one they are not going to win.

Real Clear Politics has the Michigan race as “leans Democrat” for a match-up that should be a solid Democrat retention at this point. Republican nominee Terri Lynn Land is 9 percent behind Democrat nominee Gary Peters, who is still well below 50 percent in this race. If Land gains some ground and picks up most of the undecided voters, an upset is possible in this race. If there is any chance of a Republican upset in the Michigan Senate race, it will signal a strong wave election for Republicans, who will likely win a larger than expected Senate majority.

While Dick Durbin seems to have a safe lead in the Illinois Senate race, it appears that Republican Jim Oberweis is narrowing the gap and in one recent poll is within 10 percent of Durbin, at 37 percent to Durbin's 47 percent. This race, if it comes into play for Republicans, signals another possible upset in a “blue” state and could really spell doom for the Democrat hopes of retaining their majority in the Senate. If Oberweis upsets Durbin, it really will signal the bottom has fallen out of the effort of the Democrats to win the Senate majority.

Even the New Jersey race, involving popular incumbent Cory Booker, is getting closer. The latest Richard Stockton College poll of that race shows Booker at 48 percent to 39 percent for Republican challenger Jeff Bell. That's a margin of just nine percent, and Booker showing below the magic 50 percent, that normally suggests an incumbent is vulnerable.

Those are five seats where Democrats were expect to coast to easy victory and few would worry about their odds of winning them, that could all be in play in the next week if the polls continue to move toward Republicans. Even without those seats, Republicans are likely to win a 53 senate seat majority. If the Republicans won those five seats, they would be at 58 seats in the Senate next year. Given the rumors of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and Maine Senator Angus King joining the Republican caucus, those two would give the GOP at 60 seat Senate majority in that scenario.

posted October 21, 2014 01:10 PM            

There's a lovely old cockney saying
"Pull the other one mate, it's got bells on it"

posted October 21, 2014 11:57 PM            

Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan skipped tonight's debate in North Carolina. Here's video of the debate opening:

As the Republican research firm America Rising points out, Hagan's chair was left empty:

"Facing new reports of corruption and insider deals, Kay Hagan skipped tonight’s North Carolina Senate debate, leaving an empty chair to represent her campaign. After the last debate, America Rising trackers caught Hagan skipping the post-debate press conference because of her inability to answer questions about missing Armed Services hearings on ISIS," claims America Rising.