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Author Topic:   Climate Models Fail Again!
Randall
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From: Saturn next to Charmainec
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posted November 24, 2014 06:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Antarctica's ice paradox has yet another puzzling layer. Not only is the amount of sea ice increasing each year, but an underwater robot now shows the ice is also much thicker than was previously thought, a new study reports.

The discovery adds to the ongoing mystery of Antarctica's expanding sea ice. According to climate models, the region's sea ice should be shrinking each year because of global warming. Instead, satellite observations show the ice is expanding, and the continent's sea ice has set new records for the past three winters. At the same time, Antarctica's ice sheet (the glacial ice on land) is melting and retreating.

Measuring sea ice thickness is a crucial step in understanding what's driving the growth of sea ice, said study co-author Ted Maksym, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. Climate scientists need to know if the sea ice expansion also includes underwater thickening. [Album: Stunning Photos of Antarctic Ice]

"If we don't know how much ice is there is, we can't validate the models we use to understand the global climate," Maksym told Live Science. "It looks like there are significant areas of thick ice that are probably not accounted for."

The findings were published today (Nov. 24) in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Like icebergs, much of Antarctica's floating sea ice is underwater, hidden from satellites that track seasonal sea ice. And it's difficult to take direct measurements from ships or drilling, because the thickest ice is also the hardest to reach, Maksym said.

The researchers were stuck aboard an icebreaker in 20-foot-thick (6 meters) pack ice for more than a week after taking advantage of a lead, or open water, that accessed thick ice, he said. "Obviously that carried some risk, and we were stuck until the wind changed direction again," he said.

Over the last four years, the international group of researchers has mapped the bottom of sea ice with an underwater robot, or autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), during two research cruises offshore Antarctica. The AUV can swim to a depth of about 100 feet (30 m) and has upward-looking sonar to survey the bottom of the sea ice.

"With the AUV, you can get under ice that is either difficult to access or difficult to drill, and in each region, we found some really thick ice, thicker than had been measured anywhere else," Maksym said.

Almost all of the sea ice that forms during the Antarctic winter melts during the summer, so scientists had assumed most of the ice never grew very thick. Previous studies suggested the ice was usually 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 m) thick, with a few rare spots reaching up to 16 feet (5 m) in thickness. For comparison, most of the Arctic sea ice is twice as thick (6 to 9 feet, or 2 to 3 m), with some regions covered with 12 to 15 feet (4 to 5 m) of ice.

The robot sub surveys, which were spot-checked by drilling and shipboard tests, suggest Antarctica's average ice thickness is considerably higher than previous estimates. On average, the thickness of the ice was 4.6 to 18 feet (1.4 to 5.5 m). In the three regions it surveyed, the robot sub found that deformed, thickened ice accounted for at least half of and as much as 76 percent of the total ice volume, the researchers report.

"Our study shows that we're probably missing some of this thick ice, and we need to try to account for that when we try to compare what we see in models and satellites to what we see in the field," Maksym said.

The thickest ice measured during the survey was about 65 feet (20 m) thick, in the Bellingshausen Sea, Maksym told Live Science. In the Weddell Sea, the maximum ice thickness hit more than 45 feet (14 m), and offshore of Wilkes Land, the ice was about 53 feet (16 m) thick.

These thick, craggy floes likely wouldn't exist without the fierce winds that circle Antarctica from west to east, the researchers said. Winter storms bash up the ice, freezing and reforming the rubble into new, thicker ice. "It must have been crunched up a tremendous amount and [the floes] piled up on top of each other," Maksym said. "The ice can generate enormous amounts of force if you have these strong winds. [The wind] is like an accordion, stretching it out and squishing it back together again."

The researchers' next step is to measure how much of Antarctica's total sea ice this thick ice represents. Maksym said it could be a "reasonably significant area of the pack."

The sea ice growth around Antarctica has averaged about 1.2 percent to 1.8 percent per decade between 1979 and 2012, according to the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. The increases are concentrated primarily in the Ross Sea in western Antarctica. Sea ice in the nearby Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has significantly decreased. Researchers suspect these regional differences could result from stronger winds or increased meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet, or a combination of both factors.
http://news.yahoo.com/robot-sub-finds-surprisingly-thick-antarctic-sea-ice-161703215.html

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Catalina
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posted November 24, 2014 07:09 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
science requires continual correction and rerectification of models and hypotheses.

you all believe in the moon landings...how many rockets crashed on the launchpad before that could happen? do you think it was because the models might have been off?

i notice you guys never use the Climate Change moniker, sticking to the now defunct Warming label that was scrapped because a good deal more than Warming is involved.

record weather events and precipitation of all kinds, including snow and sleet, are PART of the picture.

you also continue to insist that only the scientists who agree that the climate is changing are in someone's pay. and that if change is not manmade it isn't happening!

but even if NOTHING was happening to the CLIMATE we will drown in pollution if fossil fuels continue to be mined and regulations ignored or defeated. alberta is becoming the new nigeria, awash in oil.

but john boehner, who has invested in the tarsands business, couldnt possibly have any personal reasons for pushing the pipeline could he?

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Randall
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posted November 24, 2014 11:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Are you that dense? Climate change was adopted in an attempt to keep their financial stranglehold intact, because warming wasn't happening. There is no warming, man-made or otherwise. The models were not science--they were (and are) pure fiction.

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jwhop
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posted November 25, 2014 11:29 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
"but john boehner, who has invested in the tarsands business, couldnt possibly have any personal reasons for pushing the pipeline could he?"

Here's two New Words for you.

"Blind Trust"

When you decipher what that means, perhaps you'll stop spreading bullshiiite about investments which if directed and controlled by individual congressional investors might be a conflict of interest.

"you all believe in the moon landings...how many rockets crashed on the launchpad before that could happen?

Tell us! How many rockets crashed on the Launchpad BEFORE Americans landed on the Moon?

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Randall
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posted November 26, 2014 02:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Climate models are sheer fantasy.

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iQ
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posted November 27, 2014 07:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for iQ     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
But what is looking more and more certain is that a mini Ice-Age is closer than thought before. For the second year in a row, every State in USA recorded sub-zero temperatures.

There is a terrible misdirection going on here. One group of scamsters is using spurious Global Warming Data to make money off Green Products.
Their opponents who are Oligarchs are focused only on lack of temperature evidence for warming so that Big Oil can keep on drilling and delay viable Green Technologies.

The real problem of a mini Ice-Age [related to anomalous Sun Spot Activity or a Magnetic Pole Shift] is being overlooked.

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Catalina
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From: shamballa
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posted November 27, 2014 12:34 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4211/ch10-4.htm

The experimental stage of the space Program was so littered with failures (models not translating to physical reality) that it was considered a failure and unacceptable expense by many till literally we finally got off the ground. Conservatives were sure it was a complete waste of time and taxpayers ' money. Sound familiar?

The fact that the models don't pan out is not proof that the scIentists were lying. .. And the fact that some scIentists have different ideas doesn't mean they are more correct eIther.

I lean toward cooling myself but if the English could survive (and indeed began their most Prosperous period) in the years of the last mini ice age - without coal or oil - I am sure we can too

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Catalina
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posted November 27, 2014 12:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Not particularly cold here, IQ ... do you mean sub zero celsius? Even that has not happened in California to my knowledge...maybe way north of me...

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Randall
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posted November 28, 2014 10:54 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Sheer common sense would dictate that if CO2 is a small percentage of so-called greenhouse gasses, and man contributes a miniscule portion of that, then man cannot cause anything remotely resembling global warming. And that's even if CO2 affects climate at all, which it doesn't. And that's even if we are experiencing warming, which we're not.

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Catalina
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posted November 28, 2014 11:57 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Common sense would say the earth is flat and the sun goes around her. Common sense would say don't poison your food water and air. Common sense would say no species has lived forever

Common sense would say destroying the main source of oxygen. ..trees...disturbs the balance of the atmosphere and Removes one of the prime absorbents of co2 so the (small or large) extra amount has a greater effect.

You talk about how co2 encourges vegetation, but we remove that faster than it can grow. Canada has now surpassed the rainforest for deforestation. Our rivers are polluted, our aquifers, our air and our soil.

Common sense says that something is happening here. .. but you don't know what it is, do you, mr jones?

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jwhop
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posted November 28, 2014 12:52 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
"Tell us! How many rockets CRASHED on the Launchpad BEFORE Americans landed on the Moon?"

"Common sense says the earth is flat and the sun revolves around earth"? Right! Check!

History books are full of the names of those who "fell off the edge of the 'flat' earth". Why don't you look up some of those names and post them here?

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juniperb
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posted November 28, 2014 01:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
But what is looking more and more certain is that a mini Ice-Age is closer than thought before. For the second year in a row, every State in USA recorded sub-zero temperatures.

This I agree with. When it is colder in areas of lower 48 than Anchorage Alaska, there is something more than global warming going on.

------------------
Christian, Jew, Muslim, Shaman, Zoroastrian, stone, ground, mountain, river, each has a secret way of being with the Mystery, unique and not to be judged.
Rumi

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Randall
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posted November 28, 2014 03:41 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Liberals can never be accused of having common sense.

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Catalina
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posted November 28, 2014 08:41 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
When it is warmer in Alaska than the lower 48, where does the cold air go and what drives it?

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Randall
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posted November 28, 2014 08:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The co-founder of The Weather Channel can explain it (Google), but he also refutes that man has anything to do with it.

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Randall
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posted November 29, 2014 10:25 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It moves from north to south.

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Catalina
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posted November 29, 2014 12:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
You don't think the devastation of forests has anything to do with climate? Been to a desert lately?

But as far as the cold winters yes, warming of the truly cold areas causes them. So much for cold weather disproving climate change/warming.

Whether man MADE this or not, he has made the poisons that threaten our survival and there are things that can be done to imProve the situation. Of course only "rightists" deserve to make money, so trying is a crime because cash is Generated by the solutions? How much do you want ungovernable big biz to run your life?

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Randall
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posted November 29, 2014 11:21 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
What disproves climate change/warming is that there is none.

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Randall
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posted December 02, 2014 11:26 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Rather, there is nothing to disprove.

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Catalina
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posted December 02, 2014 01:50 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Speaking of conspiracy theories...you guys seem fond of this one

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Catalina
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posted December 02, 2014 08:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
meanwhile, as Harper pushes tarsands production and Canada outstrips Brazil in deforestation...
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/12/02/green-energy-jobs-canada-oilsands_n_6252910.html

And his government have just passed a bill allowing industrial development (oil exploration and extraction) in Canada's national parks.

Our own Congress are apparently considering this brilliant innovation right here at home,

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