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Author Topic:   Trump Leads By 2 Points In Today's LA Times Poll!
Randall
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posted August 21, 2016 07:58 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
http://cesrusc.org/election/

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Randall
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posted August 27, 2016 10:32 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Trump leads by 4 points in Florida in latest poll. And Trump leads by 14 points in Florida among independent voters.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/mason-dixon-florida-poll-trump-46-hillary-42/

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juniperb
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From: Blue Star Kachina
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posted August 28, 2016 09:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
August 26th

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

poll : Mason-Dixon

results: Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 6, Stein 2

spread:Clinton +2


Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

poll:Rasmussen Reports

results: Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 9, Stein 2

spread:Clinton +4

August 25th

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Poll:Reuters/Ipsos

results:Clinton 42, Trump 35

spread:Clinton +7
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

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Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.

Linda Goodman

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juniperb
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posted August 28, 2016 09:21 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Polling Data
RCP Average 8/5 - 8/27 -- -- 48.3 42.3 Clinton +6.0

Reuters/IpsosReuters 8/20 - 8/24
sample:1049 LV 3.5 42 35
Clinton +7

LA Times/USCLA Times 8/21 - 8/27
sample: 2460 LV 4.5 44 44
Tie

Quinnipiac 8/18 - 8/24
sample: 1498 LV 2.5 51 41
Clinton +10

Economist/YouGovEconomist 8/19 - 8/23
sample: 906 RV 4.1 47 44
Clinton +3

NBC News/SMNBC News 8/15 - 8/21
sample: 17459 RV 1.1 50 42 Clinton +8 Gravis 8/15 - 8/15
sample: 1143 RV 2.9 54 46
Clinton +8

Bloomberg 8/5 - 8/8
saample:749 LV 3.6 50 44 Clinton
+6

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_electio n_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

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Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.

Linda Goodman


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juniperb
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posted August 28, 2016 09:29 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
FLORIDA

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) RCP Average 7/30 - 8/24 -- -- 45.1 41.8 Clinton +3.3

Mason-Dixon*Mason-Dixon* 8/22 - 8/24 sample: 625 LV 4.0 44 42
Clinton +2

Florida Atlantic University*Florida
Atlantic University* 8/19 - 8/22 sample:1200 LV 2.7 41 43
Trump +2

Monmouth*Monmouth* 8/12 - 8/15 402 LV 4.9 48 39
Clinton +9

CBS News/YouGov*CBS News/YouGov* 8/10 - 8/12 sample: 1194 LV 3.6 45 40
Clinton +5

FOX 13/Opinion Savvy*FOX 13/Opinion Savvy* 8/10 - 8/10 sample:622 LV 4.0 45 44
Clinton +1

NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist 8/4 - 8/10 sample:
862 RV 3.3 44 39
Clinton +5

Quinnipiac 7/30 - 8/7 sample: 1056 LV 3.0 46 45
Clinton +1

Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University 8/1 - 8/3 sample: 500 LV 4.4 48 42
Clinton +6

All Florida: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton -5635.html

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Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.

Linda Goodman

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juniperb
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posted August 29, 2016 08:36 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
No new poll data yet to shock and awe you with

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Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.

Linda Goodman

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jwhop
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From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
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posted August 29, 2016 04:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Be careful, very careful about putting too much trust in major media polls. Only one reason to be careful, even skeptical of these polls, is that they way oversample democrats and under-sample republicans. They hide their overweighting/underweighting in the poll internals.

This is the other reason.

Media Report: 25% of Current Florida Primary Ballots Never Voted Before, EVER…
August 28, 2016
sundance

We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”….

The “Monster Vote“ is the name attributed to the largest voting bloc in U.S. history. The voters who have/had given up on the political process because it seemed futile to vote for a rigged system where nothing ever changes.

However, we first noted the surfacing of the Monster Vote in relation to the political outsider Donald Trump toward the end of 2015. It was, and is, a rather controversial theorem because the voting bloc would make all media polling completely irrelevant.

Throughout the latter part of 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016 we put our research antenna on high alert to see if the indications were real. We paid a statistician to model the data we collected. We made predictions which, if the bloc was accurate, would stun the professional political class.

Tracking social media, geographic “non-media polling” and alternate media matrices led us to believe Trump would dominate in the presidential primary. The predictions modeled the results with uncanny accuracy. Gobsmacking accuracy.

A few months later the New York Times began quietly evolving it’s electoral modeling. Washington Post political writer Bob Costa began talking about something that he too was noticing which tracked with our own research. Large numbers of the electorate who never engaged in the political process before were becoming increasingly visible.

Throughout this entire year there have been indications the “Monster Vote” is very real, but you have to look carefully to see them – and, obviously, you must inoculate yourself from conformational bias. 400,000 donations to Trump less than $200 in June was one such example. The social media app Zip App is yet another. 2,000,000 views of an innocuous Trump facebook video within 24 hours is another.

It’s a tenuous discussion because everyone wants to belittle anyone talking about it (looking at you Rush Limbaugh), and simultaneously those holding Cold Anger intensity don’t talk about it – everyone just goes about their business, yet everyone seems to know.

Well, the left-leaning Tampa Bay Times has just dropped a big bit of data which seems to also confirm the existence of this phenomenon:

“More than 25% of the inbound mail-in or absentee ballots in the upcoming primary, have NEVER VOTED BEFORE“:…

“This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber and one of the foremost experts on Florida campaigns and politics. “I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.”

As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.

In other words, these are not “likely voters” surveyed by most pollsters or targeted by sophisticated political campaigns. The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.

“The first thing I did was go back to my data people and said, ‘Are you sure you ran this right?’ “

They had. The data crunchers looked at who requested mail ballots and who is returning them, and categorized each voter by a zero, one, two, three or four — depending on how many of the last four primaries they voted in.

We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”

Remember, even in honest scientific polling – the poll methodologies are based on “assumptions”, or inputs into the collected poll samples in order to make them representative of the anticipated turnout.

Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete. As a consequence any poll data that is relying on obsolete sample methodology is going to be significantly inaccurate.

If the current ballot data reported in Florida (which does indeed line up with the changes in the Florida voter data-base) extends even remotely similar to the other states throughout the nation, the prior prediction graphic below might even be understated:

[img]https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/republican-voter-turnout-projected-2.jpg?w=640[/img]
Republican voter turnout projected

Look below the surface

Quietly below the surface you find The Monster Vote

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/08/28/media-report-25-of-current-florida-primary-ballots-never-voted-before-ever/#more-120810


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juniperb
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From: Blue Star Kachina
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posted August 29, 2016 05:23 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for juniperb     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
So, it is saying the stark shock of a clinton OR Trump potus brings these people in to vote?

Randall loves his polls so I`m keeping him updated

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Partial truth~the seeds of wisdom~can be found in many places...The seeds of wisdom are contained in all scriptures ever written… especially in art, music, and poetry and, above all, in Nature.

Linda Goodman

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 8584
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted August 29, 2016 07:23 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Their models are projecting more than 73,000,000 republican, democrat and independents voting for Trump in November.

In 2008, Obama got 69,498,516 votes.
In 2012, Obama got 65,915,796 votes.

We'll see if they're right but Trump's campaign rallies are full houses with thousands outside the venues listening to his speeches on speaker systems.

Hillay is speaking to hundreds and sometimes when labor unions bus in members, she draws a thousand or so. There's no waiting to get into a Hillary rally.

So, we will see.

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jwhop
Knowflake

Posts: 8584
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009

posted August 29, 2016 07:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Voting Bloc EVERY Pundit Never Discusses – “The Monster Vote”….
May 7, 2016
sundance

A few months before the primary season began, before Iowa cast its first vote, we pointed out this video and the message it contains.

The “Monster Vote” is the voting bloc of those who had turned away from politics; those how gave up, and/or just never voted in the first place. This video was/is prescient in retrospect when you consider the record-breaking volume of primary voters who have turned out to support Donald Trump.

In many ways what Citizen Dale describes in this video is exactly what’s happening. However, what is described in the Monster Vote is also never discussed in the media when the professional political class and punditry use historical reference points to make their arguments.

Comparisons to turnout models in 2012, 2008 etc. have absolutely no value when you consider the scope of the monster vote. The voices discussing election turnout are only comparing the 60 million for Dems, or the 60 million for Republicans.

No-one is discussing the 100 million, the silent majority, the non-voting bloc, the largest single voting bloc in the United States. However, there are signs the monster vote is active and engaged. Visible signs the professional political class would rather you not contemplate.

Obvious signs.

Very Visible Signs.

Records are being broken, but no-one is discussing why. Donald Trump is not just getting republicans, independent and some democrat voters – He’s turning out the monster vote. Venues with 10,000…. 15,000… 20,000,… 30,000,… even 40,000 are being filled in a PRIMARY contest.

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