posted December 11, 2017 01:17 AM            

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What the poll found is fascinating. Moderates, according to the poll, aren't tuned-out or ill-informed, but they tend to see both sides of complex issues—for example, they want the government to do more to help the economy, but they worry that it may be ineffective or counterproductive. They see both parties as overly ideological and wish politicians would compromise more. A plurality are Democrats, but they see themselves as slightly right-of-center ideologically, and one-third say they vote equally for Democrats and Republicans. And they are surprisingly young and diverse: Self-described moderates represent a 44 percent plurality of Hispanic and nonwhite voters and a 42 percent plurality of the Millennial generation.

"Moderates wrestle with, and often reject, what they see as the false either/or ideological choices that define modern politics," Michelle Diggles and Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, two Third Way officials, wrote in a memo on the poll, which was provided exclusively to The Atlantic in advance of its release Thursday. "They recognize that both sides have a piece of the truth and see flaws in the standard liberal and conservative perspectives."

The poll provides a road map for both parties as they hone their messages. For Democrats, it shows the party will have a hard time winning if it shifts to a self-consciously liberal tone: Just 38 percent of Democrats see themselves as liberal, while 37 percent call themselves moderate and another 25 percent call themselves conservative. (I've written about this dynamic before.) For Republicans, it shows that there's a group of swing voters skeptical of big government who might be open to the party's message—but only if the GOP jettisons some of its harsh rhetoric toward the underprivileged.

The poll finds that 40 percent of moderates consider themselves Democrats, while just 21 percent are Republicans and 39 percent are independents. (This finding jibes with the conventional wisdom of a GOP whose increasingly doctrinaire conservatism has alienated much of the middle of the electorate.) About a quarter of moderates say they always vote for Democratic candidates, and another 18 percent do so more often than not; 9 percent of moderates always vote for Republican candidates, while 12 percent vote for Republicans more often than Democrats. A solid 33 percent are swing voters who say they vote equally for Democrats and Republicans.

Moderates' perspective on the role of government has elements in common with both liberals and conservatives. Only 23 percent of moderates favor a larger government that provides more services (compared to 54 percent of liberals and 13 percent of conservatives); 37 percent favor a smaller government with fewer services (compared to 12 percent of liberals and 62 percent of conservatives).

Liberals overwhelmingly (75 percent) worry government isn't involved enough in the economy, while conservatives mostly (60 percent) worry government is too involved in the economy; moderates lean toward the liberal side of the argument, with 53 percent saying not enough involvement to 40 percent who cite too much. Still, more moderates fear big government (52 percent) than big business (41 percent). Two-thirds of moderates think government often gets in the way of economic growth, and a majority (54 percent) think that if government is involved in something, it often goes wrong.

On the issues, moderates often see virtue in both sides' arguments. A huge majority (84 percent) want more background checks for gun buyers, but 58 percent say our current gun laws are "sufficient to protect me and my community." Three-quarters want to expand domestic exploration of coal, oil, and natural gas, but nearly 90 percent want to invest more in renewable energy. Seventy-six percent agree that it's immoral "to leave our children a country that is $17 trillion in debt," but 72 percent agree that "we need to increase investments in infrastructure and education rather than worrying about long-term debt."

On immigration and national security, however, moderates are mostly on one side of the issue: 86 percent of moderates see undocumented immigrants as hardworking people trying to care for their families, and a slim majority disagree with the idea that giving them citizenship would "reward bad behavior," 50 percent to 47 percent. Meanwhile 72 percent worry about the government going too far monitoring phone and internet usage, and a majority say they are not worried we're not doing enough to stop the next terror attack on U.S. soil.

On issues of poverty and opportunity, moderates worry about structural obstacles to the American dream, but they don't see themselves as victims. Just 28 percent of moderates agree that discrimination against racial minorities is a thing of the past, compared to 18 percent of liberals and 43 percent of conservatives. Four in 10 moderates think people are poor primarily because they've made bad choices; a quarter of liberals believe this, while 60 percent of conservatives do.

Majorities of moderates believe government should play a role in creating equal opportunity and that a strong safety net is important even if "a few lazy people game the system," but moderates also largely believe the government has created incentives for poor people not to work. Most interestingly, even as they see society as unequal, seven in 10 moderates disagree with the idea that "the deck is stacked against people like me." In fact, it was conservatives who were most likely to see themselves as victims: 35 percent said the deck was stacked against them, versus 28 percent of liberals and moderates.

Moderates see both parties as overly ideological—they say Democrats are too liberal and Republicans too conservative—and they are distressed by the harsh nature of modern political discourse, more likely than liberals or conservatives to say they avoid political conversations because they're too divisive. But they aren't disengaged: Only 35 percent say they tune out politics, about the same as liberals and conservatives.

The Third Way researchers are what might be termed partisans of moderation—the importance of moderates in politics is their raison d'etre, and they have an obvious interest in reinforcing that notion. But this poll provides compelling evidence that they're correct. There is indeed a major segment of the electorate that doesn't belong firmly to either ideological camp, and it is distinct in its ideas and sympathies from either liberals or conservatives. Democrats' success in recent national elections can be attributed to their arguments' generally greater resonance with voters in the middle. But Republicans could win them back with a more centrist message—and Democrats could lose them if they stray too far to the left.

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posted December 11, 2017 03:12 AM            

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Originally posted by teasel:

I have no issue with you defending the tax bill. I don't hate you. If you think I'm being aggressive at all. I was just surprised by you giving a thumbs up to a travel ban.
My dad is a moderate. He voted third-party. I've voted third-party before. I'm tired of liberals being blamed for this insanity. In one thread on another part of this board, a few people seemed to be blaming the natural disasters on the democrats who were protesting.

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Thanks.

posted December 11, 2017 02:59 PM            

Roy Moore epitomizes all the above Evils, and the GOP has unfortunately put their weight behind him, leaving no space for meeting in the middle.

But Conscientious Republicans are almost in tears, begging Alabamans to not vote Demonic. Today, Republican Senator Shelby said he would not vote for Moore. There is still some hope for the GOP...

posted December 11, 2017 03:09 PM            

There were a lot of moderates here unfortunately there are few opportunities for moderates to get a foot in the door in Washington these days.. you may have noticed that any criticism of Our Leader even from his own party is treated as treason and the critic given the full Twitter Trash Treatment.

posted December 11, 2017 09:09 PM            

I don't care what jwhop is doing - or what he has been doing. Nor does what is going on in Alabama have anything to do with this post. I haven't agreed, disagreed or event commented on anything related to either of those topics, so what relevancy does it have to this article or the definition of a moderate?

posted December 11, 2017 09:23 PM            

I mentioned jwhop because your owning sentence appears to reflect an either or divide in this forum which is more apparent than real. There are actually more moderates here, who hold some of those conflicting views, than your post suggests.

However the overlapping percentages of this poll paint them as schizoid to a large degree and tho i find the Atlantic generally thoughtful, i have to wonder if that invalidates the findings at least somewhat.

posted December 12, 2017 01:53 AM            

The article suggests that some 40% of millennials qualify as moderates based on their views - I fail to see how that "minimizes" the number of moderates. In fact, it suggests that there are more moderates than previously thought or suggested by mainstream media.

Referring to moderates as schizo is an attempt to de-legitimize the importance of moderates in our political system. This article does no such thing. In fact, it really is possible to hold two different opinions on different topics that would appear contradicting (but really aren't) without having a mental illness.

And obviously, since I already replied to teasel, I was not replying to her again.

Jwhop has nothing to do with this article. The divide that I'm referring to has to do with the backlash from Democrats here when I show support for a conservative idea. Or when Democrats lash out again Republicans for taking a moral and ethical high road on social injustice. That is the divide that I'm referring to. I literally spell it out, word for word, in the beginning of the post:

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For those who find themselves wondering *how* a self-proclaimed Democrat could support a conservative policy, or *why* a Republican would feel as strongly as a liberal counterpart about social injustice. Not everyone swings so far left or right that there's no room to meet in the middle...

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