Posts: 2800
From: US
Registered: Sep 2019

posted October 17, 2024 05:27 PM            

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Gallup's voter identification poll has accurately predicted the winner of the national popular vote in the last four presidential elections, within one percentage point:

Voter I.D.Advantage/Winner

2008: Democrats: +8 (Obama +7.2%)
2012: Democrats: +4 (Obama +3.9%)
2016: Democrats: +3 (Clinton +2.1%)
2020: Democrats: +5 (Biden won +4.5)

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Posts: 2800
From: US
Registered: Sep 2019

posted October 17, 2024 05:29 PM            

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According to podcaster, Steve Turley, Gallup's voter I.D. poll has accurately predicted the winner for decades.

What distinguishes the last four presidential elections is that their prediction was within one percentage point.

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Posts: 2800
From: US
Registered: Sep 2019

posted October 17, 2024 05:34 PM            

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The voter identification for 2024
Gallup: October 1-12

Voter Identification Advantage:

Republicans: 49% (+7)
Democrats: 42%

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Posts: 2800
From: US
Registered: Sep 2019

posted October 17, 2024 05:45 PM            

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This number will likely be averaged to a lower number, but it looks like President Trump is on his way to winning the popular vote.

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