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Author Topic:   Could Mount St. Helens Erupt Once Again?
LibraSparkle
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From: Vancouver USA
Registered: May 2004

posted September 27, 2004 12:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
September 27, 2004
Could Mount St. Helens Erupt Once Again? http://katu.com/news/story.asp?ID=71382

By MELANTHIA MITCHELL
SEATTLE - Seismologists believe there's an increased likelihood of a hazardous event at Mount St. Helens due to a strengthening series of earthquakes at the volcano.

"The key issue is a small explosion without warning. That would be the major event that we're worried about right now," said Willie Scott, a geologist with the USGS office in Vancouver.

Initially, hundreds of tiny earthquakes that began Thursday morning had slowly declined through Saturday. By Sunday, however, there had been more than 10 temblors of magnitude 2.0 to 2.8, the most in a 24-hour period since the last dome-building eruption in October 1986, Scott said.

The quakes have occurred at depths less than one mile below the lava dome within the mountain's crater. Some of the earthquakes suggest the involvement of pressurized fluids, such as water or steam, and perhaps magma.

Mount St. Helens is about 55 miles northeast of Portland, Ore.

A group of scientists planned to visit the mountain Monday and conduct a flyover to test for carbon dioxide and sulfur gases, which could suggest the involvement of magma. They'll also erect additional seismic sensors and sophisticated global positioning devices to measure activity.

In the event of an explosion, Scott said the concern would be focused on the area within the crater and the flanks of the volcano. It's possible that a five-mile area primarily north of the volcano could receive flows of mud and rock debris.

That portion of the mountain blew out during the May 18, 1980, eruption that left 57 people dead, devastating hundreds of square miles around the peak and spewing ash over much of the Northwest.

"We haven't had a swarm of earthquakes at Mount St. Helens since 2001," state seismologist Tony Qamar said. "Clearly something new is happening."

Qamar said if an eruption did occur it would possibly involve ash and steam, called phreatic eruptions.

The cause and outcome of the swarm were uncertain Sunday evening.

"There's been no explosions, there's no outward sign that anything is occurring. This is all based on the pattern of earthquake activity that is occurring below the dome," said Scott.

Experts believe there is "an increased probability of explosions from the lava dome if the level of current unrest continues or escalates," USGS and the University of Washington Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network in Seattle said in a joint statement.

A similar swarm of quakes in November 2001 and another in the summer of 1998 did not result in an eruption. However, the quakes could increase the likelihood of small rock slides from the 876-foot-tall lava dome within the mountain's crater.

In the 1986 eruption, magma reached the surface and added to the pile of lava on the crater floor.

(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

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Isis
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posted September 27, 2004 01:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Isis     Edit/Delete Message
I have some friends who grew up in Yakima, and they were teens when the last eruption occurred - apparently as the rain of ash came through town, they put towels around their mouths, and made jumps with the falling ash to jump their dirt bikes over.

Their recounting of it is very interesting - how day turned to night in the middle of the day, it raining inches of ash...of course that's nothing compared to entire mountainsides of mud coming down into communities I hope this time if they issue a warning, people will listen and evacuate. Wasn't that how many of the deaths occurred last time?

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LibraSparkle
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From: Vancouver USA
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posted September 27, 2004 01:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
Yeah. The people that died were on the mountain, or very near. I love about 45 miles from it. From what the people here have told me, the only thing that reached us was ash.

The last eruption was on my hubby's 5th birthday.

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FishKitten
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From: on the trail of the Old Ones
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posted September 27, 2004 02:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for FishKitten     Edit/Delete Message
I'm just a few hours north on Kootenay Lake in BC, LibraSparkle. If she looks like she's going to blow, load up the family and come on up. We should be pretty safe here. PS...don't forget to bring the pets!

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FishKitten
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posted October 01, 2004 12:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for FishKitten     Edit/Delete Message
How's your mountain today, LibraSparkle?

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LibraSparkle
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posted October 01, 2004 12:32 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
Actually, there's still activity. The quakes are getting a little stronger. They're in the low 3s, last week they were in the mid to upper 2s. I dunno. Weirdness.

A couple days ago there wasn't a cloud in the sky... except for this small cloud over Mt. Hood. It kinda freaked me out. I'm sure it was just a cloud. There's not activity at Mt. Hood... but with what's going on at Mt. St. Helens, I guess people here are just a little on edge.

If all these little quakes don't stop, there's probably going to be another eruption.

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FishKitten
Knowflake

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posted October 01, 2004 01:11 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for FishKitten     Edit/Delete Message
I hope you have a few days supplies on hand just in case. 45 miles is still close enough to see some service interruptions if she really blows.

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LibraSparkle
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From: Vancouver USA
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posted October 01, 2004 01:17 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
Yeah, I suppose that's really good advice. I sure hope she doesn't blow. It's more likely that she'll blow lava this time around, instead of mud.

Funny. I left Hawaii to come back here and be threatened by a volcano. Ironic, eh?

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LibraSparkle
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posted October 01, 2004 01:27 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040927/full/040927-22.html

On 29 September, the US Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) placed Mount St Helens on alert-level two of a three-level system. This signifies that "processes are underway that have significant likelihood of culminating in hazardous volcanic activity".

The alert does not warn that people are at imminent risk, and the region around the volcano, in the Cascades mountain range, is mostly uninhabited. All the same, hiking and mountaineering close to the mountain have been banned temporarily, and the Washington Department of Natural Resources has stopped public access to all of its land within 12 miles of the volcano.

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FishKitten
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From: on the trail of the Old Ones
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posted October 01, 2004 03:58 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for FishKitten     Edit/Delete Message
Hey...can you se the ash and steam?

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LibraSparkle
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posted October 01, 2004 05:33 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
Yeah, I could. Cool lookin'. Hopefully it's done.

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LibraSparkle
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posted October 01, 2004 05:49 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
They just announced a bit ago on the news that the lava dome has caved in

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FishKitten
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From: on the trail of the Old Ones
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posted October 01, 2004 06:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for FishKitten     Edit/Delete Message
Woah...I missed that on Komo 4. Stay safe!

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26taurus
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posted October 01, 2004 06:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 26taurus     Edit/Delete Message
((((hugging Sparkle))))

Stay safe. Keep us updated.

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BlueTopaz124
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From: Portland, OR
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posted October 01, 2004 07:14 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for BlueTopaz124     Edit/Delete Message
I'm located in Portland OR and it's pretty quiet...for now.

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LibraSparkle
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From: Vancouver USA
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posted October 02, 2004 01:23 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
Yeah. It's done for now. All is fine... and most likely will stay fine

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LibraSparkle
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posted October 02, 2004 12:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message

This image updates every five minutes.

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LibraSparkle
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posted October 05, 2004 01:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
*~Bump~*

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LibraSparkle
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From: Vancouver USA
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posted October 05, 2004 01:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
Other mountains in the area are having seismic activity too.

The mountain is only active in the morning. In the afternoon and evening it's quiet.

Could this have something to do with the moon? ... I mean with gravity and all...

We've been having beautiful weather lately. Sunny and warm... in the afternoon. It's always cold and damp in the early morning (that's just how it is here in September).

I kinda hope it does blow. Everyone is far enough away that no people would get hurt. It would be a beautiful display. You can see it pretty well from the school my kids go to.

A lot of wildlife would die, mostly elk. That would be unfortunate... but a lot of them would probably run away. They seem to know thing.


This is footage from yesterday... but today was pretty much the same.
http://easylink.playstream.com/katu/041004helens_crater_jet2.wvx

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BlueTopaz124
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From: Portland, OR
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posted October 05, 2004 03:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for BlueTopaz124     Edit/Delete Message
LibraSparkle...Mount St Helens spouted quite a bit more steam today, more than yesterday or even Friday...so something's (obviously) happening...plus there was a minor 2.7 earthquake on Mt. Hood...

So, stay tuned

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LibraSparkle
Knowflake

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From: Vancouver USA
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posted October 14, 2004 10:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LibraSparkle     Edit/Delete Message
New lava keeps emerging at St. Helens
- PEGGY ANDERSEN, Associated Press Writer
Thursday, October 14, 2004


(10-14) 14:48 PDT SEATTLE (AP) --

More new lava emerged on the crater floor of Mount St. Helens on Thursday, expanding the growing rock formation behind the volcano's old lava dome and emitting a red glow at night.

Airborne observers have seen "vigorous jets" of ash and steam near the new growth, said Tina Neal of the U.S. Geological Survey. Aerial photographs suggest some uplift on the left side of the emerging rock "fin."

Temperatures on parts of the new lobe exceed 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit, and feathery ash blankets red-hot stone.

Dimensions of the new lobe building on the existing lava dome have not been pinned down due to steam and fumes at the site, Neal told a news conference at the Gifford Pinchot National Forest headquarters in Vancouver, Wash., about 50 miles south of the mountain.

"It's grown a little bit since Monday" to about 1,600 feet in diameter and 400 feet high, Neal said. Because the crater floor slopes downward to the north, the new formation on the higher south side is about level with the 1,000-foot top of the old dome.

Seismic activity remained low Thursday, suggesting "an open system" that allows magma to reach the surface without significant obstacles, she said.

This period of dome-building began with intense seismic activity Sept. 23, which indicated magma was breaking through rock as it rose toward the surface. Several steam eruptions followed, and geologists detected lava at the surface late Monday.

The last round of dome-building began in the months after St. Helens' devastating May 1980 eruption and lasted six years.

Gas-rich magma can cause explosive eruptions, but samples taken this week have detected little carbon dioxide or hydrogen sulfide at the site, Neal said. There was no evidence, including increasing earthquakes or ground deformation, to suggest pressure was building, she said.

So far this fall, the most visible bursts at St. Helens have involved steam and small amounts of ash as rainwater and glacier melt combined with hot rock in the crater of the 8,634-foot peak.

As the dome-building continues, it could produce small explosions with little warning, Neal said.

A large explosion is still possible, but is among the least likely scenarios, she said. Such a blast could send a column of steam and gritty ash tens of thousands of feet up and out, posing potential problems for airplanes and road traffic.

Trails within a five-mile radius of the peak remained closed, with the alert level at a mid-range "volcano advisory." The Forest Service, however, reopened some roads and trails near the mountain for hunters and hikers, including the popular Ape Cave and Trail of Two Forests on the mountain's south side.

In its last major eruptive phase before the 1980 blast, the mountain stirred intermittently for 57 years, starting in 1800. Mount St. Helens has been the most active volcano in the lower 48 states and Canada over the past 4,500 years.

St. Helens' 1980 eruption was a lateral blast that hurled debris nearly 20 miles north, killed 57 people and paralyzed much of the Northwest with gritty, machine-clogging ash.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the Net:
U.S. Geological Survey regional site: vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Cascades/CurrentActivity/


URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/10/14/state1748EDT7956.DTL

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