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Author
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Topic: Question For Jwhop
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AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 5754
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
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posted January 12, 2012 01:53 PM
  
Jwhop, I posted per the usual, the relevant facts. Yes, there has been shifting. Both parties have lost numbers amongst those registered to affiliate with a party. Registered Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans 4-3 (42 million to 30 million), and there are 24 million Independents according to this article: http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-atlanta/ voters-fleeing-republican-democratic-parties-independents-continue-to-grow According to that article Obama has a 39% approval rating with those Indepedents, that equals 9,360,000. 9,300,000 + 42,000,000 = 51,360,000. 61% of 24 million is 14,640,000. 14,640,000 + 30,000,000 = 44,640,000. Democratic leaning = 51, 360,000
Republican leaning = 44,640,000 Understand? Even with an exodus from party affiliation and Independents going against Obama, he still has really favorable numbers. This is what I've been trying to point out to you for days now. No matter how you slice it, the Republican will have a tough battle on his/her hands. That's the reality. Republicans aren't nearly as strong or overwhelming as you think. Thus far, the most sober assessment of this race by a Republican-leaner on this forum has been Juni's when she said: Candidly, I see Obama getting another 4 Perhaps it's sad to you guys, but you need to find a way to help your candidate. Maybe you could collaspe the European economy. That would be disaster for Obama (but also for Americans across the board). IP: Logged |
jwhop
Knowflake Posts: 4649
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009
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posted January 13, 2012 11:54 AM
Partisan Trends: Number of Democrats Falls to All-Time Low
January 02, 2012The number of Republicans in the country increased by a percentage point in December, while the number of Democrats fell back two points to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. During December, 35.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.3% in November and just below the high for the year of 35.6% reached in May. At the same time, just 32.7% of adults said they were Democrats, down from 34.9% in November. The previous low for Democrats was 33.0% in August of this year. The number of voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties rose to 32.0% in December from 30.8% the month before. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.
www.rasmussenreports.com
Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 38%
Monday, January 09, 2012 Republicans now hold a six-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Jan. 8. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead.
www.rasmussenreports.com
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AcousticGod
Knowflake Posts: 5754
From: Pleasanton, CA
Registered: Apr 2009
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posted January 13, 2012 02:22 PM
I guess you'll have to trust their methodology. I am going to stick with my prediction, however, that it'll be an uphill battle for whichever Republican gets the nomination. IP: Logged |
jwhop
Knowflake Posts: 4649
From: Madeira Beach, FL USA
Registered: Apr 2009
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posted January 13, 2012 03:08 PM
"I guess you'll have to trust their methodology.
I am going to stick with my prediction, however, that it'll be an uphill battle for whichever Republican gets the nomination."..acousticYeah, I can agree with that acoustic. IP: Logged | |
Lindaland
